Mavericks vs Rockets Prediction and Preview: NBA, Oct 21

Written By Scott Krones

It’s the Mavericks vs Rockets, Wednesday, October 21, 8:30 PM ET in Houston.

Both teams are playing their first game of the season.

  • Price: Rockets 76¢, Mavericks 24¢ (Polymarket, as of Wed 6:57 AM ET)

  • Kalshi: Rockets 75¢, Mavericks 25¢

  • Game total: 230.5 points (over 50¢, under 51¢)

  • 2027 title price: Mavericks 1¢, Rockets 3¢ (Polymarket US)

  • Live price and every move: NBA WIRE

Mavericks vs Rockets odds on Polymarket and Kalshi

At 76¢, the Rockets are clear favorites; the Mavericks are 24¢. Kalshi has the Rockets 1¢ cheaper at 75¢. NBA MARKET keeps both apps side by side. The Rockets opened at 73¢, so the price has moved 3¢ toward them since.

Injury report

As of Wed 6:57 AM ET. These can change right up to tip.

  • Santi Aldama (Mavericks): Out, not specified knee, expected back Oct 23

  • Steven Adams (Rockets): Day-To-Day, right calf, expected back Oct 21

  • Caleb Martin (Mavericks): Out, right thumb, expected back Oct 23

  • Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks): Out, right heel, expected back Oct 23

  • Dereck Lively II (Mavericks): Out, right foot, expected back Oct 23

  • Jett Howard (Mavericks): Day-To-Day, right calf, expected back Oct 21

  • Julian Phillips (Rockets): Day-To-Day, illness, expected back Oct 21

Mavericks vs Rockets player stats

2025-26 numbers, current rosters. Usage is the share of possessions a player finished with a shot, free throws or a turnover while on the floor.

Mavericks

  • Cooper Flagg: 33.5 min, 26.9% usage, 21.0 pts, 6.7 reb, 4.5 ast

  • P.J. Washington: 31.0 min, 20.1% usage, 14.2 pts, 7.0 reb, 1.8 ast

  • Naji Marshall: 29.5 min, 20.5% usage, 15.2 pts, 4.7 reb, 3.3 ast

  • Max Christie: 29.1 min, 16.4% usage, 12.3 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.0 ast

  • Zaccharie Risacher: 22.4 min, 17.6% usage, 9.6 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.1 ast (new, was ATL)

Out: Caleb Martin, Santi Aldama.

Rockets

  • Kevin Durant: 36.4 min, 27.0% usage, 26.0 pts, 5.4 reb, 4.8 ast

  • Amen Thompson: 37.4 min, 20.0% usage, 18.3 pts, 7.8 reb, 5.3 ast

  • Alperen Sengun: 33.3 min, 26.6% usage, 20.4 pts, 8.9 reb, 6.2 ast

  • Jabari Smith Jr.: 35.1 min, 18.2% usage, 15.8 pts, 6.9 reb, 1.9 ast

  • Marcus Smart: 28.5 min, 15.4% usage, 9.3 pts, 2.8 reb, 3.0 ast (new, was LAL)

What to watch in Mavericks vs Rockets

  • Flagg drives the Mavericks. 26.9% usage in 33.5 minutes last season; Marshall is next at 20.5%.

  • Durant drives the Rockets. 27.0% usage in 36.4 minutes last season; Sengun is next at 26.6%.

  • Davis’ shots are up for grabs. He used 27.5% of the Mavericks’ possessions in 31.3 minutes before leaving for WAS.

  • Santi Aldama is out. 27.9 minutes and 20.2% usage come off the floor.

Top rookies: Morez Johnson Jr., pick 9 (Mavericks).

Questions about Mavericks vs Rockets

Is Kevin Durant playing tonight?

Kevin Durant was not on the injury report as of Wed 6:57 AM ET. Status can still change at shootaround, so the last report before tip is the one that counts.

Who will win, the Mavericks or the Rockets?

The Rockets. Polymarket has them at 76¢, which reads as about a 76% chance, and the price moves live on NBA WIRE.

When and where is Mavericks vs Rockets?

Wednesday, October 21, at 8:30 PM ET, in Houston.

For tonight’s other games, see NBA predictions; today’s board covers every sport.

Kalshi gives new traders $25 when you trade $25, code SKILL. Claim it here.

Polymarket gives new users $25 on a $10 deposit, code SKILL. Claim it here.

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Scott Krones
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