Kalshi CS2 Prediction Market Picks
CS2 prediction market picks and breakdowns for trading on Kalshi. Powered by MARKET, the GOS fair-value scorecard.
B8 to win vs Nemesis
B8 are more battle-tested than Nemesis. While BO1 is scary, ultimately I expect B8 to secure the win and move to 2-0 at the event.
BIG to win vs Lynn Vision
The edge on MARKET is showing barely in Lynn Vision's favor, but BIG are still firm favorites here. blameF has done great work since taking over as the in-game leader.
PARIVISION to win vs Alliance
PARIVISION brings more individual firepower and experience than Alliance. The best-of-one variance is real, but I do expect a win for this new-look PARIVISION team.
MARKET puts Jame and company at 68.9 percent here against a Kalshi price of 66 percent.
Falcons to win vs Vitality
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market for trading CS2 game and tournament winner outcomes. Legal in all 50 states, no house margin. Game of Skill posts CS2 market analysis here before major events.
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-designated contract market under federal oversight, legal in all 50 states. It is the only US prediction market with this standing.
Each contract settles at $1 if the outcome hits and $0 if it does not. A team priced at 65 cents pays $1 on a win, so the price reads as the implied probability.
No house margin, so returns come down to whether a price sits below the true probability. Every play we post is logged below with its result.
New traders get $10 free when you trade $10. CFTC-regulated, all 50 US states.
CodeSKILLKalshi runs CS2 markets across BLAST Premier, IEM events, ESL Pro League, and the CS2 Major. Game markets open once the bracket is set; tournament winner markets stay open all event. Full previews go up on the blog before each event.
MARKET is the GOS scorecard. Every game gets a GOS fair value, the current Kalshi price, and the spread between them. Edges of 5% or more are flagged; the ones we act on are logged below with results.
CARNAGE rates the players. MARKET puts GOS fair value next to the Kalshi price. RANGE shows the shape of each game, from blowout to upset. COMMS carries the reads behind them.
GOS values every game from player ratings, form, map pools, roster changes, and LAN vs online context, then sets that against the Kalshi price. See CARNAGE for the underlying player ratings.
| pick / opp | implied | entry | payout | pnl | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B8vs Nemesis | 61% | $24.99 | $40.53 | -$24.99 | [LOSS] |
| BIGvs Lynn Vision | 65% | $24.99 | $38.10 | +$13.11 | [WIN] |
| PARIVISIONvs Alliance | 66% | $24.99 | $37.54 | +$12.55 | [WIN] |
| Falconsvs Vitality | 31% | $25.00 | $76.92 | +$51.92 | [WIN] |
| paiNvs Monte | 28% | $24.99 | -- | -$24.99 | [LOSS] |
| G2vs Spirit | 32% | $15.00 | -- | -$15.00 | [LOSS] |
| FURIA / Monte O2.5Over 2.5 Maps | 53% | $20.00 | -- | -$20.00 | [LOSS] |
| HEROICvs Aurora | 34% | $10.00 | $26.58 | +$16.58 | [WIN] |
| G2 / Vitality O2.5Over 2.5 Maps | 36% | $25.00 | $66.46 | +$41.46 | [WIN] |
| HEROICvs Monte | 51% | $24.99 | $46.77 | +$21.78 | [WIN] |
| FURIAvs Falcons | 46% | $20.00 | -- | -$20.00 | [LOSS] |
| MOUZvs FURIA | 23% | $19.88 | -- | -$19.88 | [LOSS] |
| PARIVISIONvs Spirit | 31% | $49.73 | $153.00 | +$103.27 | [WIN] |
| Nemigavs K27 | 47% | $49.72 | $102.00 | +$52.28 | [WIN] |
| G2vs BetBoom | 65% | $24.64 | -- | -$24.64 | [LOSS] |
| Alliancevs Aurora | 21% | $24.83 | $112.00 | +$87.17 | [WIN] |
| NIPvs Gentle Mates | 18% | $24.05 | -- | -$24.05 | [LOSS] |
| NIPvs HEROIC | 49% | $49.54 | -- | -$49.54 | [LOSS] |
| FUTvs PARIVISION | 42% | $43.71 | $100.00 | +$56.29 | [WIN] |
| EYEBALLERSvs FOKUS | 37% | $19.71 | $51.00 | +$31.29 | [WIN] |
| B8vs Legacy | 43% | $19.68 | $44.00 | +$24.32 | [WIN] |
| MIBRvs 3DMAX | 44% | $24.70 | -- | -$24.70 | [LOSS] |
| Astralisvs FUT | 23% | $19.88 | -- | -$19.88 | [LOSS] |
| NRGvs Legacy | 29% | $20.00 | -- | -$20.00 | [LOSS] |
