What Are Prediction Markets? How They Work for Sports and Esports (2026)
prediction markets_a price is a probability.
A prediction market lets you buy and sell contracts on real outcomes: a CS2 match, an NBA game, a Premier League title. Here is how they work, how they differ from a sportsbook, and where to follow the prices.
Read a price
$10 buys 16 contracts. If the outcome happens they pay $16.00, a $6.00 profit before fees. If it does not, you lose the $10.
How it works
Every market is a yes or no question
Will Vitality win the final? Will Arsenal win on Saturday? Buy Yes if you think it happens, buy No if you think it does not. A soccer match has three questions: home win, draw and away win.
Contracts pay $1 or $0
You pay the price in cents now and collect $1 if you are right. If you think the real chance is higher than the price, the contract is cheap. If lower, the No side is.
Traders set the price
No bookmaker sets the line. The price is where the last buyer and seller met, so it moves every time news arrives: a lineup, an injury, a goal.
You can sell before the result
Bought at 35¢ and the price is now 60¢? Sell and keep the 25¢, or cut a loss the same way. Prices update live during games on both venues.
Pick a sport
cs2_
Our own numbersWhere Game of Skill started. Our ratings and fair value run on every CS2 game we rate, next to the Kalshi and Polymarket price.
nba_
2026-27 seasonEvery game on Kalshi and Polymarket side by side, every price move logged, and the futures from champion to MVP.
epl_
Three outcomesHome, draw and away on both venues for every Premier League match, plus the title and relegation races.
Prediction market or sportsbook
| Kalshi and Polymarket US | Sportsbook | |
|---|---|---|
| Who sets the price | Traders buying and selling | The book |
| What you pay | A trading fee per contract | A margin built into the odds |
| Getting out early | Sell at the current price any time | Cash out when offered, at the book’s price |
| What you trade | Outcomes: games, seasons, awards, events | Lines, props and parlays |
| Where it is legal | CFTC-regulated, most US states | State by state |
Where prices can be wrong
Reputation over form
A team that won big six months ago can keep that price after a roster change or a slump. Current form and lineups tell you more than the name.
Slow news
Stand-ins, injuries and rotation take minutes to hours to reach the price. Our WIRE pages log every move of 3¢ or more, so you can see when news landed.
Thin markets
A Champions League final has thousands of traders and a sharp price. A mid-table CS2 qualifier has few. Fewer traders means the price can sit further from the real chance.
Two venues, two prices
Kalshi and Polymarket US often differ by a cent or two on the same outcome. Buying the lower price is the easiest edge there is. Our MARKET pages mark it for you.
Kalshi$25when you trade $25Sports, esports and more, CFTC regulated
Polymarket$50on a $10 depositSports and more on Polymarket US
Underdog$1,000max bonus cashDFS pick’em and Underdog Predicts, 40+ states
Novig$25on a $10 depositCFTC exchange, 47 states
ProphetX$75when you trade $50CFTC exchange, 48 states
Betr$200no-sweat entriesPick’em plus Polymarket predictions, in beta
Rebet100%match up to $100Peer to peer, entries matched between usersQuestions
What is a prediction market?
An exchange where you buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes. Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price in cents reads as the market’s chance in percent. A contract at 40¢ means the market has it at about 40%.
How is a prediction market different from sports betting?
A sportsbook sets the odds and builds its margin into them. On a prediction market other traders set the price, and the exchange charges a trading fee on each contract instead. You can also sell a contract at the current price any time before the result, not only when a book offers a cash out.
Are prediction markets legal in the US?
Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges and are open in most states. Some states have challenged sports contracts, so availability can change. Each app checks your location when you sign up and trade. Polymarket’s international site at polymarket.com is not open to US residents.
What can you trade on prediction markets?
Sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB and soccer leagues like the Premier League, plus esports such as CS2. Both venues also list politics, economics, weather and culture. Game of Skill covers CS2, the NBA and the EPL.
Kalshi or Polymarket?
Check both before you buy. The same outcome often trades a cent or two apart, and each venue charges its own fees. Our market pages for CS2, NBA and EPL show both prices side by side. See Kalshi vs Polymarket for the full comparison.
Can you make money on prediction markets?
Some people do, most do not. To profit over time your estimates have to beat the market price by more than the fees. Keep a log of every trade, your price and the result. After a hundred trades it tells you whether your estimates are better than the market’s.
How are prediction markets different from DFS pick’em?
Pick’em apps like Underdog and Sleeper ask you to go higher or lower on player stat lines such as kills, points or goals, and pay on a multiplier. Prediction markets trade on outcomes at a price set by other traders. See the CS2 apps and soccer apps pages.
Can I use Kalshi or Polymarket US outside the US?
Both are built for US residents. Rules outside the US vary by country and province, so check each platform’s terms for where you live.
Does Game of Skill have its own numbers?
For CS2, yes: our ratings and fair value run on every game we rate. For the NBA and EPL we start with market data, and our own number goes live once it has been tested against last season’s results.
Game of Skill covers prediction markets for CS2, the NBA and the Premier League on Kalshi and Polymarket US. See Kalshi vs Polymarket, the Kalshi review, the Polymarket review, Champions League prediction markets, World Cup prediction markets and the CS2 strategy guide. Updated September 2026 by Scott Krones.
18+ only. Trading is risky and 100% loss can occur. Offers have limits and are not available in all jurisdictions.Full terms
Polymarket: 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.
Kalshi: Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Live prices for every sport we cover, and the CS2 tools where our own numbers run.