GOS fair value vs prediction market prices.
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Are these numbers final?
No. GOS fair value updates right up until each game starts as lineups confirm and news breaks, with a human reviewing every slate before publish. Market prices on games tagged LIVE PRICE refresh automatically until shortly before the series starts, then lock; other games show the price recorded at publish.
What is MARKET?
MARKET is the Game of Skill CS2 prediction market scorecard. Each game card shows three numbers: GOS fair value (the model's series probability for the favorite), the prediction market price (live until shortly before start), and the edge between them. The heatmap up top sorts every team by price, and tapping a game filters the page to it. The same model drives every Kalshi CS2 hub pick.
How is GOS fair value calculated?
Every team gets a GOS rating built from its five players. The rating gap sets the win probability shown on each card, per map for a best of one and compounded across maps for a series. A human reviews every slate before publish. The same engine powers CARNAGE and RANGE. See the lineups page for each team's starting five and roles.
How do I read the edge?
The edge is where the model and the market disagree. Below +3% they basically agree, +5% is worth a look, +8% or higher is a meaningful gap. Edges of +5% or more are highlighted in mint and edges of -5% or worse in orange; the two sides of a game mirror each other, so a negative edge on one side is the same signal on the other. An edge is a signal, not a pick. A real pick also needs conviction in the read, roster and news context, and the liquidity to trade into. The Kalshi CS2 hub log shows which edges cleared that bar, and most do not.
Where do the prices come from?
Prices come from prediction market data, refreshed every minute while a series is still upcoming. Each game locks at its last price roughly ten minutes before the scheduled start, and the LIVE PRICE tag disappears at lock. In-game prices are never shown. Prices are approximate, so always check the platform for the current number before entering a position.
What are the Series Props?
The Series Props board under each game prices the map handicap and total maps markets straight from the GOS game shapes: the favorite covering -1.5 maps is the model's 2-0 sweep probability, the underdog +1.5 is everything else, and over 2.5 maps is the probability the series goes the distance. Edges read the same as the moneyline: GOS fair minus the market price. A closed entry means the series locked before a live price was captured, so only the GOS fair stands.
Where can I trade these markets?
Kalshi is the only CFTC-regulated prediction market available in all 50 US states. Use code SKILL at sign-up for a new-trader bonus. Polymarket has bigger international volume but isn't legally accessible to US users.
Game of Skill publishes MARKET scorecards before every major CS2 slate. GOS fair value next to live prediction market prices, with edges called out for every game.
For player-level ratings see the CARNAGE page. For the full picks log see the Kalshi CS2 hub. For prediction market education see the prediction markets explainer.