Expected: NFL, NBA, EPL and CS2 results vs what the market expected

Every team’s results against what the market expected before each game.

Wins vs expected

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Market power rankings

Opponent-adjusted

Biggest upsets

Winners priced under 35%

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Questions

What does this page show?

How every team’s results compare with what Kalshi’s prices expected before each game. Above zero, a team has done better than the market thought; below zero, worse. Big gaps early in a season tend to shrink.

How are expected wins worked out?

By adding up a team’s win prices. A team priced at 70% in one game and 40% in the next expects 1.1 wins from the two. In the Premier League, where draws count, a club priced 60% to win and 25% to draw expects 2.05 points (3 × 0.60 + 0.25).

Which price is used?

The close of the last trading day before the game. Some CS2 markets open on match day; those use the first price of the day, still before the match.

How is schedule strength worked out?

Each team gets a market rating: its average win price across its games. Schedule is the average rating of the opponents a team has faced. Higher is tougher.

What counts as an upset?

A win by a team priced under 35% before the game. The list shows the lowest price first.

Where do the results come from?

Kalshi’s settled game markets. Results appear once a game settles, usually within a couple of hours of the end. CS2 covers the last 120 days and teams with five or more matches.