How Premier League draw prices work

Updated Oct 28, 2026. All prices as of 1:17 PM ET on Oct 28.

A Premier League draw is its own contract on Polymarket and Kalshi: it pays $1 if the score is level after 90 minutes plus stoppage time and $0 if either team wins. This weekend, draw prices run from 21¢ (Tottenham vs Crystal Palace) to 29¢ (Coventry vs Sunderland and Hull vs Ipswich), so the market gives every match roughly a one-in-five to three-in-ten chance of ending level.

Three contracts, one winner

Each match has three outcomes: home win, draw and away win. Exactly one settles at $1.00 and the other two at $0.00. Polymarket US lists these as winner markets with ties, and Kalshi names the third contract Tie. League matches have no extra time or penalties, so a stoppage-time equalizer settles the draw.

Because the three prices share one dollar, they add up to about 100¢. That is why a soccer favorite can sit under 50¢ and still be the favorite: Arsenal are 41¢ at Liverpool with the draw at 28¢, which leaves roughly 31¢ for a Liverpool win.

This weekend’s draw prices

Every match on EPL MARKET as of 1:17 PM ET, lowest draw price first. Polymarket and Kalshi had the same favorite price on 9 of the 10 matches; Tottenham were 63¢ on Polymarket and 64¢ on Kalshi.

  • Tottenham vs Crystal Palace: 21¢

  • Man City vs Brighton: 22¢

  • Chelsea vs Man United: 25¢

  • Brentford vs Nottm Forest: 26¢

  • Aston Villa vs Fulham: 27¢

  • Bournemouth vs Leeds: 28¢

  • Liverpool vs Arsenal: 28¢

  • Newcastle vs Everton: 28¢

  • Coventry vs Sunderland: 29¢

  • Hull vs Ipswich: 29¢

This weekend, the cheaper draws sit beside the bigger favorites. The two lowest draw prices come with Tottenham at 63¢ and Man City at 59¢, and the two 29¢ draws come in matches where no side is above 42¢.

What a draw price pays

A price in cents is the market’s chance: a draw at 28¢ means about a 28% chance the match ends level. $10 buys 35 draw contracts at 28¢ for $9.80. If the match is drawn they pay $35.00; if either team wins they pay nothing. You can also sell before full time at the live price, which jumps every time a goal goes in. Fees are extra, and each app shows its fee before you confirm.

With the score level late on, the draw contract climbs toward $1 as the clock runs down. EPL WIRE charts home, draw and away for every match live and logs any outcome that swings 15¢ inside 10 minutes.

How often matches end level this season

23 of the 79 Premier League matches settled on Kalshi this season ended level, 29%, as of Oct 28. This weekend’s ten draw prices average 26.3¢. The two numbers cover different matches, so read that as a rough check, not a test: eight rounds is a small sample.

Some clubs have drawn far more than others. Points from draws, with their share of each club’s total, from Expected (season to date):

  • Manchester United: 4 (57%)

  • Nottingham Forest: 3 (50%)

  • Leeds United: 5 (45%)

  • Brentford: 5 (45%)

  • Hull City: 4 (40%)

  • Everton: 4 (40%)

At the other end, Manchester City (7-0-1) and Arsenal (6-0-1) have not drawn yet.

Why draws matter for the table

A draw is worth one point, so it changes what prices expect from each club. On Expected, a club’s expected points are three times its win price plus its draw price. Man City at 59¢ to win and 22¢ to draw against Brighton expect 1.99 points (3 × 0.59 + 0.22). Hull at 36¢ and 29¢ against Ipswich expect 1.37.

That is how Hull City sit 3.9 points above what prices expected, third in the league, with two wins and four draws from eight matches. Brighton (+4.3) and Man City (+4.2) lead the same table, and Manchester United are last at 6.8 points below. Every club’s market rating is on EPL power rankings.

Where to find draw prices

EPL MARKET lists the draw price beside each favorite for the round, with Polymarket and Kalshi side by side, and EPL WIRE has the live chart. Match previews with form and team news are on EPL predictions, and which apps list Premier League matches in your state is on best prediction market apps.

FAQ

Does a draw after extra time count?

League matches have no extra time. Polymarket and Kalshi settle Premier League match markets on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

What happens to the team contracts if the match is drawn?

Both settle at $0.00 and the draw contract settles at $1.00.

Why don’t the three prices add up to exactly 100¢?

Each outcome trades on its own, so the total drifts a cent or two either side of 100¢. Fees are charged separately and are not in the price.

Which match has the lowest draw price this weekend?

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace, with the draw at 21¢ and Tottenham at 63¢ on Polymarket, as of 1:17 PM ET on Oct 28.

Can I sell a draw contract before full time?

Yes. Both apps let you sell at the live price before settlement. On a draw contract that price depends on the score and the minutes left.