market accuracy_
When the market prices a team at 70¢, how often does it win?
A price is a chance: 70¢ means 70%. Here is how often those chances came true. For each team’s own record, see Expected.
Where to trade in the US
Code SKILL on every app
Kalshi$25 when you trade $25
Polymarket US$25 on a $10 deposit
Underdog$50 when you play $10
Betr$200 in no-sweat entries
Chalkboard$100 bonus plus a free pickUS apps. Every app, offer and state: best prediction market apps. 18+ (21+ where required). Offers for new users; check each app’s terms.
common questions
How is accuracy measured?
Every settled game this season is graded at each team’s Kalshi or Polymarket price the day before. Teams are grouped by price (60–69¢, 70–79¢…) and we compare how often they won with what they were priced to win.
What does the dashed line mean?
Perfect accuracy: teams priced at 70¢ win exactly 70% of the time. Dots above it won more often than priced; dots below won less.
What is average miss?
How far, on average, each price band’s win rate landed from its price, in percentage points, weighted by the number of teams.
Why does each game count twice?
A game has two prices, one per team, and both sides are graded. A 70¢ favorite and its 30¢ opponent each add one result.
Is this advice?
No. It shows how prices have matched results. Past accuracy says nothing certain about the next game.