How NHL prediction markets work
Updated Nov 1, 2026. All prices as of 1:32 PM ET on Nov 1.
An NHL prediction market price is the cost, in cents, of a contract that pays $1 if a team wins, so the Rangers at 55¢ on Polymarket means the market gives New York about a 55% chance against the Oilers tonight. Kalshi and Polymarket both list NHL games, and NHL WIRE shows the two prices next to the score, with every move since each market opened.
What a price means
Each game is a yes/no market on each team. A buy at 55¢ returns $1 if the Rangers win, a 45¢ profit, and nothing if they lose. The two sides add up to about $1, so a team at 55¢ leaves its opponent near 45¢: the Oilers were 46¢. Prices are before fees, and each app shows its fee before you confirm an order. Each market’s rules tab says how overtime and a shootout settle, so read it before you trade.
Sunday’s NHL games on Polymarket
Five games on Nov 1. The favorite in each, on Polymarket as of 1:32 PM ET:
Hurricanes vs Jets (live): 84¢
Mammoth at Flyers: 63¢
Rangers vs Oilers: 55¢
Senators at Ducks: 54¢
Wild at Capitals: 51¢
Wild at Capitals is the closest game to even, 51¢ to 50¢, and the Mammoth at 63¢ are the biggest favorite of the games yet to start. The Rangers are up 3¢ since yesterday and the Mammoth up 2¢.
Why NHL prices move before puck drop
The biggest pre-game news in hockey is the starting goalie. Teams usually confirm their starter after the morning skate on game day, and on the second night of a back-to-back the backup often starts. A late move of a few cents often lines up with a confirmed starter, so check who is in net before reading more into it. NHL WIRE logs every move as it happens.
Once the puck drops
NHL games keep trading live, and the price follows the score. Jets at Hurricanes shows how fast: the Hurricanes were 73¢ on both apps before the 1:00 PM ET start and 84¢ after a 1-0 lead in the first period, 11¢ on one goal. NHL WIRE charts every game’s live price next to the score.
Which teams beat their prices
Expected compares each team’s results with what its pre-game prices said. Through Oct 31 the Oilers are 10-3, 2.6 wins above what their prices expected, the most in the league, and the Hurricanes are 11-3, 2.3 above. NHL power rankings rate every team from those prices, adjusted for opponents: the Avalanche are first at 63 despite a 7-6 record, and the Hurricanes third at 59.
How much NHL markets trade
NHL WIRE logged $2.1M traded across 10 games in the week to Oct 31, the most on Oilers at Islanders ($400K). On Kalshi, Oilers at Rangers was the most traded game in the 24 hours to Sunday morning, with 26,919 contracts. On a thin market one trade can move the price, so check the traded amount on WIRE before reading much into a move. Radar posts the night’s biggest favorite, closest game and big trades every 10 minutes.
FAQ
How do NHL prediction markets pay out?
A contract pays $1 if your team wins and nothing if it loses. You pay the price up front, so a 55¢ buy makes 45¢ of profit on a win, before fees.
What does 55¢ mean on Kalshi or Polymarket?
About a 55% chance, as the market sees it. The two sides of a game add up to about $1.
Do overtime and shootouts count?
Each app’s rules for the market say how overtime and a shootout settle. Read the rules tab before you trade.
Where can I see NHL prices live?
NHL WIRE shows every game’s price chart, both apps and the score. Expected and NHL power rankings show how each team has done against its prices this season.
18+ only. Trading is risky and 100% loss can occur. Not advice.