How NFL prediction markets work
Updated Oct 31, 2026. All prices as of 1:33 PM ET on Oct 31.
An NFL prediction market price is the cost, in cents, of a contract that pays $1 if a team wins, so the Bills at 62¢ on Polymarket means the market gives Buffalo about a 62% chance against the Ravens. Kalshi and Polymarket both list every Sunday game on Nov 1, and NFL Market shows the two prices side by side with the move since each market opened.
What a price means
Each NFL game is a yes/no market on each team. A buy at 62¢ returns $1 if the Bills win, a 38¢ profit, and nothing if they lose. The two sides add up to about $1, so a team at 62¢ leaves its opponent near 38¢. Prices are before fees: each app charges its own, and both show the fee before you confirm an order.
Sunday’s favorites on Polymarket
Every Sunday game on Nov 1 has a price on both apps. The favorite in each, on Polymarket as of 1:33 PM ET on Oct 31, from NFL Market:
Bengals vs Titans: 87¢
Jaguars vs Colts: 81¢
Patriots at Dolphins: 76¢
Cowboys vs Cardinals: 75¢
Rams vs Chargers: 74¢
Commanders vs Eagles: 71¢
Steelers vs Browns: 65¢
Lions vs Vikings: 63¢
Bills vs Ravens: 62¢
Buccaneers vs Falcons: 56¢
Jets vs Raiders: 54¢
Chiefs at Broncos: 52¢
The Chiefs at 52¢ in Denver are the closest game to even on the slate, and the Bengals at 87¢ are the biggest favorite. Eight of the 12 games kick off at 1:00 PM ET, Chargers at Rams at 4:05, Chiefs at Broncos and Patriots at Dolphins at 4:25, and Eagles at Commanders at 8:20. Bears at Seahawks follows on Monday at 8:15 PM ET, with the Seahawks 62¢ on Polymarket.
When Kalshi and Polymarket disagree
The same team can cost a different amount on each app, and NFL Market lists both and marks the cheaper one. As of 1:33 PM ET on Oct 31, 10 of the 12 Sunday games had the same price on both. The two gaps: the Rams were 74¢ on Polymarket and 73¢ on Kalshi, and the Chiefs 52¢ on Polymarket and 53¢ on Kalshi. The widest gap on the board was next Thursday’s Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens 58¢ on Polymarket, 56¢ on Kalshi.
A lower price pays more for the same result. Buying the Ravens at 56¢ returns 44¢ of profit if they win, against 42¢ at 58¢. On a 1¢ or 2¢ gap, fees can close or flip the difference, so compare the price after fees on each app before you trade.
Why NFL prices move before kickoff
Most pre-game moves come from injury news, and NFL news arrives on a schedule. Final injury statuses come out two days before the game (Friday for a Sunday game), and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff. A jump at either time is usually a status change. The Since open column on NFL Market shows how far each favorite’s Polymarket price has moved since its market opened. Four of the biggest moves for Sunday as of 1:33 PM ET on Oct 31:
Buccaneers (vs Falcons) up 20¢ to 56¢
Lions (vs Vikings) up 16¢ to 63¢
Bills (vs Ravens) down 13¢ to 62¢
Chiefs (at Broncos) up 10¢ to 52¢
A move that size usually has a reason you can check: the injury list, the practice reports or a lineup change that week. NFL WIRE charts each game’s price from the open, so you can see whether a move came in one jump, which usually means news, or drifted over several days.
Once the game starts
Rows leave NFL Market at kickoff, and the market keeps trading live. The price follows the score: a 62¢ favorite that falls two scores behind early can drop well under 50¢, and climb back just as fast. NFL WIRE shows every game’s live price chart next to the score.
Beyond who wins
Kalshi also lists player props as ladders (4+ catches, 5+ catches and up). NFL Usage turns those prices into projected catches, yards and carries for every player, and the guide to Kalshi NFL player props shows how to read them. Season markets such as the Super Bowl winner are on NFL Futures, and Expected compares each team’s results with what its game prices said.
FAQ
How do NFL prediction markets pay out?
Each contract pays $1 if its team wins and $0 if it loses. Your profit on a win is $1 minus the price you paid, before fees.
What does 62¢ mean on Kalshi or Polymarket?
About a 62% chance, as the market prices it at that moment. The Bills were 62¢ on both apps to beat the Ravens as of 1:33 PM ET on Oct 31.
When do NFL prices move the most before a game?
Around injury news: final statuses two days before the game, and inactives 90 minutes before kickoff.
Can I trade NFL games on Kalshi and Polymarket in the US?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange available in most states. Polymarket is open to US traders through Polymarket US. Nothing here is a recommendation.
18+ only. Trading is risky and 100% loss can occur. Not advice.