How Kalshi NFL Player Props Work: Reading Catch Prices

Updated Oct 26, 2026. All prices as of 1:19 PM ET on Oct 26.

Kalshi NFL player props are a ladder: a separate yes/no contract for each step of a stat, such as 4+ catches, 5+ catches and up. Each price is the market's chance of reaching that step, and adding every step gives the number of catches the market expects.

What one step's price means

Each step pays $1 if the player gets there and $0 if he doesn't, so the price reads as a chance: 53¢ means about 53%. Here is CeeDee Lamb's Kalshi catches ladder before Cowboys at Eagles on Monday Night Football, Oct 26, from NFL Usage:

  • 4+ catches: 90¢

  • 5+ catches: 80¢

  • 6+ catches: 68¢

  • 7+ catches: 53¢

  • 8+ catches: 38¢

  • 9+ catches: 27¢

  • 10+ catches: 19¢

  • 11+ catches: 13¢

  • 12+ catches: 8¢

  • 13+ catches: 6¢

The 7+ step is the one closest to even, so 7 catches sits near the middle of what Kalshi expected from Lamb on Oct 26.

From a ladder to a projection

Because each step is the chance of getting at least that far, the sum of all the steps equals the expected total. Lamb's 4+ through 13+ steps add to 4.02 catches. The 1+, 2+ and 3+ steps together add the other 2.9, for a projection of 6.9 catches, the highest of any player in the game on Oct 26.

The math works the same for every player. NFL Usage gives this example: steps of 99¢, 92¢, 82¢, 71¢, 54¢, 38¢, 24¢, 14¢ and 7¢ for 1+ through 9+ add to 4.8 catches.

The likely range

NFL Usage shows a likely range next to each projection: from the highest step priced about 70¢ or more to the highest priced about 30¢ or more. Lamb's range was 5 to 8, from 80¢ on 5+ and 38¢ on 8+. Read it as roughly a 70% chance he reaches the low end and a 30% chance he reaches the high end.

Share of team: where the targets go

Divide a player's projection by his team's total and you get his share. Kalshi's Cowboys catches added to 21.9 on Oct 26. The top five:

  • CeeDee Lamb: 6.9 (32%)

  • George Pickens: 5.0 (23%)

  • Ryan Flournoy: 3.5 (16%)

  • Jake Ferguson: 2.7 (12%)

  • Javonte Williams: 2.5 (11%)

The Eagles' total was 14.3, led by Dallas Goedert at 5.4 (38%) and Makai Lemon at 4.3 (30%). Backups without a Kalshi market aren't counted, so every share runs slightly high.

Why projections move

The ladder reprices when news lands: an injury, a role change, a practice report. In the 24 hours to 1:19 PM ET on Oct 26, Goedert's projection rose from 5.1 to 5.4 catches and Darius Cooper's from 3.1 to 3.3. NFL Roles ranks every change like this by size, and flags teams where one player's projection fell at least 15% while teammates rose, so you can see who absorbs a role when a starter sits. Kalshi opens player props one to two days before kickoff, so Sunday's games fill in through Saturday.

Check the money behind a price

A projection is only as good as the trading behind it. Lamb's catches markets had $16K traded as of 1:19 PM ET on Oct 26, $15K of it that day. Ryan Flournoy's had $582. His ladder (85¢ for 2+, 66¢ for 3+, 47¢ for 4+) still adds to 3.5 catches, but a few hundred dollars can move a market that size. Brevyn Spann-Ford's markets opened on Oct 26 and drew $23K in 24 hours, the most of any player in the game, for a projection of 1.3 catches.

Kalshi and Polymarket on the same player

Polymarket lists one number per player, such as over 4.5 catches. To compare, read Kalshi's price for the same result off its ladder: over 4.5 catches is the same outcome as 5+, which was 80¢ for Lamb. NFL Usage shows the Polymarket price only when that market has $500 or more traded and a buy/sell gap of 8¢ or less. Prices are before fees. For game prices on both apps side by side, see NFL Market; for live in-game charts, see NFL WIRE.

FAQ

How does a Kalshi player prop pay out?

Each step is a yes/no contract that settles at $1 if the player reaches it and $0 if he doesn't. A yes on Lamb 7+ catches at 53¢ returns $1 if he catches 7 or more.

What does "projected 6.9 catches" mean?

It's the sum of every step's price on the ladder: the number of catches the market expects, not a promise. Lamb's projection was 7.0 the day before and 6.9 at 1:19 PM ET on Oct 26.

When do NFL player props open on Kalshi?

One to two days before kickoff. Thursday's game appears early in the week; Sunday's games fill in through Saturday.

Does this work for the NBA too?

Yes. Kalshi uses the same step ladders for NBA points, rebounds and assists. See how NBA prediction markets work on Kalshi and Polymarket.

18+ only. Trading is risky and 100% loss can occur. Not advice.