NBA prediction markets: how Kalshi and Polymarket work
What trades, how a price reads, what moves it and what it costs. Prices from Kalshi and Polymarket US, both open to US traders.
How a price works
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. The price in cents is the market’s chance.
| Price | Chance | Cost of 100 | Pays if right | Profit before fees |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢ | 20% | $20 | $100 | $80 |
| 50¢ | 50% | $50 | $100 | $50 |
| 64¢ | 64% | $64 | $100 | $36 |
| 80¢ | 80% | $80 | $100 | $20 |
The two sides of a game add up to about 100¢. On a futures board each team is its own contract, so the 30 title prices do not have to add up to exactly 100.
What is trading now
| Market | Name | Polymarket US | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 champion | Spurs | 21¢ | 22¢ |
| 2027 champion | Thunder | 20¢ | 22¢ |
| 2027 champion | 76ers | 10¢ | 10¢ |
| MVP | Victor Wembanyama | 28¢ | 33¢ |
| MVP | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 16¢ | 16¢ |
| MVP | Luka Doncic | 12¢ | 16¢ |
Buy-Yes prices, Sep 27, 2026. Live boards on NBA PROPS.
Market types
| Market | Question | Settles |
|---|---|---|
| Game winner | Who wins tonight | Final |
| Spread, total | Winning margin, combined points | Final |
| Player stats | Points, rebounds, assists | Final |
| Champion, conferences | 2027 title, East, West | June 2027 |
| Awards | MVP, Rookie of the Year | Announcement |
| Season | Win totals, playoffs, play-in, seeding | End of season |
Game and player markets open a day or two before each game.
What moves NBA prices
Minutes. Who plays, for how long, and who takes the shots. Most pre-game moves happen inside the NBA’s injury report windows:
| Report | Deadline (local time) |
|---|---|
| Day-before report | 5 p.m. the day before |
| Game-day report | 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. (8 to 10 a.m. for tips at 5 p.m. or earlier) |
| Second night of a back-to-back | 1 p.m. game day |
| After that | Official report updates every 15 minutes |
- Usage tells you who gains. Usage is the share of team possessions a player finishes. When a 30% usage starter sits, those shots go to specific teammates; their player markets move more than the game price. Example: Jaylen Brown used 36.2% of Boston’s possessions last season, the most on the team, before his reported trade.
- Back-to-backs. The second-night report is due by 1 p.m. local, so rest decisions land hours before tip.
- Lopsided games. At 80¢ or more, the market expects a game decided early, and starters can sit the fourth quarter. Player markets move with it.
- In-game swings. Runs, foul trouble and injuries move live prices within minutes.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US
| Kalshi | Polymarket US | |
|---|---|---|
| Thunder, 2027 title | 22¢ | 20¢ |
| Wembanyama, MVP | 33¢ | 28¢ |
| Regulator | CFTC | CFTC (QCX LLC) |
| Trading fee | 0.07 × price × (1 − price) | See Polymarket US fee schedule |
| New-user offer | $25 when you trade $25 | $50 on a $10 deposit |
The same contract can cost several cents more on one venue. On Sep 27 Wembanyama was 5¢ cheaper on Polymarket US and the Thunder 2¢ cheaper. NBA MARKET compares both for every game. US access in detail: Can you trade NBA prediction markets in the US?
Kalshi fees
| Price | Fee per contract | Per 100 contracts |
|---|---|---|
| 50¢ | 1.75¢ | $1.75 |
| 60¢ | 1.68¢ | $1.68 |
| 80¢ | 1.12¢ | $1.12 |
| 95¢ | 0.33¢ | $0.33 |
Taker fees. Resting limit orders usually cost less. A 1¢ gap between venues can disappear after fees.
Track NBA prices
Best NBA apps
Kalshi$25when you trade $25NBA games, player props and futures, CFTC regulated
Polymarket$50on a $10 depositNBA games, props and futures on Polymarket US
Underdog$1,000max bonus cashDFS pick’em and Underdog Predicts, 40+ states
Novig$25on a $10 depositCFTC exchange, 47 states
ProphetX$75when you trade $50CFTC exchange, 48 states
Betr$200no-sweat entriesPick’em plus Polymarket predictions, in beta
Rebet100%match up to $100Peer to peer, entries matched between usersFAQ
Are NBA prediction markets legal in the US?
Kalshi and Polymarket US are regulated by the CFTC. Some states are challenging sports contracts, so check availability in each app. Not legal advice.
What does 60¢ mean?
About a 60% chance. A 60¢ contract pays $1 if it happens: 40¢ profit before fees.
Can you sell before the game ends?
Yes, at the current price, any time the market is open.
Does Game of Skill publish its own NBA number?
Not yet. Market prices only until our model has been tested against last season.
More NBA guides
18+ only. Trading is risky and 100% loss can occur. Offers have limits and are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices move, and this is not advice.