NBA prediction markets: how they work
Each contract pays $1 if you’re right. Its price, in cents, is both what it costs and the market’s view of the chance. This guide covers reading a price, fees on Kalshi and Polymarket US, and the points in an NBA day when prices move.
Reading a price
A contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and nothing if it doesn’t, so the price is the market’s chance: 64¢ means about 64%.
Before fees, which every venue charges in some form (see What it costs).
Both sides of a game add up to about 100¢. Futures boards don’t have to, because each team is its own contract.
What you can trade
- Games: who wins, the winning margin and combined points. They list two to three days before tip and settle on the official final, overtime included.
- Players: points, rebounds, assists and threes, settled on the official box score.
- Futures: the 2027 title, conference winners, MVP and other awards, win totals and playoff spots, all season. Live boards: NBA PROPS.
When prices move
Most of an NBA price comes down to who plays, and that news arrives on a schedule (local times):
Little money is in yet, so the first price is a starting point.
Who is out, doubtful or questionable.
The main update; 8 to 10 a.m. for tips at 5 p.m. or earlier.
Rest decisions for teams on the second night. Tonight’s back-to-backs
Minutes limits and late scratches.
Runs, foul trouble and injuries move the price within minutes.
When a star sits, his shots go to the next players by usage, not evenly. On this season’s Trail Blazers, Ja Morant (32.5% of possessions last season), Shaedon Sharpe (30.5%) and Deni Avdija (29.3%) carry the offense; if one sits, look at the other two first. Every team’s order is on NBA USAGE.
Where to trade
Kalshi and Polymarket US are both CFTC regulated and open in most states (state by state). The same contract often costs a few cents more on one than the other; NBA MARKET shows both for every game. New users get $25 on Kalshi when they trade $25, and $25 on Polymarket US with a $10 deposit. Code SKILL.
What it costs
Almost every prediction market charges something, and it comes in different forms:
- Trading fees. Kalshi charges 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per contract when an order fills right away: 1.75¢ at 50¢, 1.12¢ at 80¢, 0.33¢ at 95¢. Limit orders that wait in the book usually cost less. Polymarket US and the other apps publish their own schedules; some charge per trade, some take a share of winnings.
- The spread. The price to buy is a little higher than the price to sell. Buy and sell straight away and you lose the difference, even with no fee.
- Deposits and withdrawals. Card and bank transfers can carry their own charges. Check before you move money.
Fees matter most on small edges. At 50¢ on Kalshi, a 1¢ price difference between venues is smaller than the fee.
Common mistakes
- Long shots at 1 to 3¢. One small order moves the price, and the spread can be bigger than the price itself.
- Trading news the price already has. A ruled-out star moves the price within minutes; NBA WIRE shows whether it already did.
- Reading preseason like the regular season. Before Oct 20, starters play a quarter or two, and the price is mostly about who suits up.
Trade within your limits
Only trade money you can afford to lose; a contract can go to zero. Set a budget before the season and use the deposit limits most apps offer; many also let you pause your account. If trading stops being fun, step away. For free, confidential help in the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Follow NBA prices
Best NBA apps
Kalshi$25when you trade $25NBA games, player props and futures, CFTC regulated
Polymarket$25on a $10 depositNBA games, props and futures on Polymarket US
Underdog$1,000max bonus cashDFS pick’em and Underdog Predicts, 40+ states
Novig$50on a $10 depositCFTC exchange, 47 states
ProphetX$75when you trade $50CFTC exchange, 48 states
Betr$200no-sweat entriesPick’em plus Polymarket predictions, in beta
Rebet100%match up to $100Peer to peer, entries matched between usersFAQ
Are NBA prediction markets legal in the US?
Kalshi and Polymarket US are regulated by the CFTC and open in most states. A few states are challenging sports contracts, so each app checks your location when you sign up. Not legal advice.
What does 60¢ mean?
The market puts the chance at about 60%. The contract pays $1 if it happens, so you make 40¢ before fees, or lose your 60¢ if it doesn’t.
Can you sell before the game ends?
Yes, at the current price, any time the market is open, including during the game.
Does overtime count?
Yes. Game markets settle on the official final score, overtime included.
What happens if a game is postponed?
Each venue has its own rule. Check the market’s rules on Kalshi or Polymarket US before you trade.
More NBA guides
18+ only. Trading is risky and 100% loss can occur. Offers have limits and are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices move, and this is not advice.