NBA prediction market glossary

Every term on our NBA pages, in one place: how prices and markets work, what the stats mean, and how the schedule and injury report move both.

Updated Sep 28, 202663 terms6 sections

Prices and markets 16 Market types 11 Venues and fees 6 Minutes and usage 14 Schedule and news 11 On our pages 5

Prices and markets

#Price: What a contract costs, from 1¢ to 99¢. It reads as the market’s chance: 64¢ means about 64%.
#Contract: Pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not.
#Yes and No: The two sides of a contract. On most boards they add up to about 100¢. When both cost more than 50¢, buyers and sellers are far apart.
#Favorite: The side priced above 50¢. On our pages it is shown first, in green.
#Buy price and sell price: The cheapest price someone will sell at and the highest price someone will buy at. The gap between them is a cost of trading.
#Profit before fees: $1 minus the price, per contract. At 64¢ that is 36¢.
#Most you can lose: What you paid for the contract. The worst case is that it settles at $0.
#Selling early: Closing a position before the market settles, at the current sell price. Locks in a gain or limits a loss.
#Opening price: The first traded price after a market lists. Our previews show how far a game has moved from it.
#Price at tip: The last price before the game starts. Our results log measures the market against it.
#Price move: The change in cents over a period. NBA WIRE logs the meaningful ones as they happen. NBA WIRE
#Volume: Total dollars traded in a market. Higher volume usually means a steadier price.
#Thin market: One with little traded. Prices can jump on small orders; we flag these instead of treating the price as settled.
#Order book: All the resting buy and sell orders in a market. A deep book means a large order barely moves the price.
#Limit order: An order at a price you set. It waits in the order book until someone takes it.
#Settles: When a market pays out: games at the final, awards at the announcement, win totals at the end of the regular season.

Market types

#Game winner: Which team wins the game, overtime included. Settles at the final.
#Spread: Whether a team wins by more than a set margin.
#Total: Whether both teams combined score more than a set number of points.
#Player market: Whether a player reaches a points, rebounds, assists or other stat number. Lists a day or two before the game.
#Futures: Markets that settle after many games: the champion, conferences, awards, win totals, playoffs.
#Champion: Which team wins the NBA Finals. The biggest NBA market on both venues. 2027 champion market
#Conference winner: Which team wins the East or the West and reaches the Finals.
#Award markets: MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and the rest. Settle when each award is announced. MVP market
#Win total (Kalshi): Contracts in five-win steps, such as 45+ or 50+. The step priced closest to 50¢ is the market’s middle. All 30 teams
#Win total (Polymarket US): One threshold per team, set near the middle, such as Knicks 52+.
#Playoff and play-in markets: Which teams make the playoffs or the play-in, seeds 7 to 10 in each conference.

Venues and fees

#Kalshi: A CFTC-regulated exchange open to US traders in most states. Lists NBA games, player markets and futures.
#Polymarket US: Polymarket’s CFTC-regulated exchange for US traders, run by QCX LLC. Its own listings and prices.
#polymarket.com: Polymarket’s international site. Not open to US residents; its public data powers our price charts. US access
#CFTC: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US regulator for Kalshi and Polymarket US.
#Taker fee: Kalshi’s charge when your order fills against a resting one: 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per contract, at most 1.75¢ at 50¢. Fee table
#Maker order: A resting limit order someone else fills. On Kalshi it usually costs less than a taker order.

Minutes and usage

#Minutes: Playing time per game. The first thing that moves a player’s markets: no minutes, no production.
#Usage rate: The share of team possessions a player finishes with a shot, free throws or a turnover while on the floor. 30% or more is a lead scorer.
#Usage crunch: When a roster’s top players used well over 100% of possessions between them last season. Someone’s role has to shrink, and early player prices are the likeliest to be off.
#True shooting (TS%): Scoring efficiency counting threes and free throws. About .580 is league average; .650 or more is elite.
#BPM: Box plus/minus: a player’s estimated impact per 100 possessions against an average player. +10 is MVP level; three players topped it last season.
#Per 36 minutes: A stat scaled to 36 minutes, to compare starters with bench players who play less.
#Pace: Possessions per 48 minutes. Faster pace means more shots for everyone, which lifts totals and player markets.
#Assist rate: The share of teammates’ baskets a player assisted while on the floor. 40% or more marks a primary creator.
#Rebound rate: The share of available rebounds a player grabs while on the floor.
#Net rating: Points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions. The best single number for how good a team is.
#On/off: How a team performs with a player on the floor against without him. The clearest read on who absorbs a missing player’s role.
#Rotation: The 8 to 10 players a coach uses. Changes show up in minutes before they show up in prices.
#Minutes limit: A cap on a player’s playing time, often after injury. Cuts his markets even at a high usage rate.
#Load management: Resting a healthy player to manage his workload, most often on the second night of a back-to-back.

Schedule and news

#Injury report: The NBA’s official status list. Teams file by 5 p.m. local the day before, then between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. on game day (8 to 10 a.m. for early tips). It updates every 15 minutes after that.
#Out, doubtful, questionable, probable: The official statuses, from least to most likely to play. Late changes near tip move prices within minutes.
#Game-time decision: A player whose status will not be settled until close to tip. Prices often hold back until it is.
#Back-to-back: Games on consecutive days. The second-night report is due by 1 p.m. local, so rest decisions land hours before tip. Tonight’s back-to-backs
#Rest days: Days off since a team’s last game. A rest edge matters most when one side is on the second night.
#Lopsided game: A favorite at 80¢ or more. The market expects a game decided early, so starters on both sides can sit the fourth quarter.
#65-game rule: Players need 65 games to be eligible for MVP and most other awards, with narrow exceptions. MVP market
#Opening Night: The first night of the regular season: Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.
#NBA Cup: The in-season tournament. Group play starts Oct 30; the knockout rounds run to a final in December.
#Play-in tournament: Seeds 7 to 10 in each conference play for the last two playoff spots, in April.
#Trade deadline: The last day teams can trade in the season, in February. Roster moves before it reprice futures fastest.

On our pages

#Fair value: Our own number for a game. We publish it for CS2; for the NBA it goes live only after it passes a test on last season’s results.
#Results log: Every final with the favorite’s price at tip. It is the baseline our own number has to beat.
#Brier score: How far forecasts land from results, from 0 (perfect) upward. We use it to judge the market and, later, ourselves.
#Upset: A team priced under 50¢ at tip that wins.
#Minutes watch: The confirmed news note on our previews: who is out or limited, with the source and time.

Track NBA prices

nba wire_Live prices and movesA price chart for every game and a log of every move.nba market_Kalshi vs PolymarketThe price to buy each side of every game, side by side.nba props_FuturesChampion, conferences, awards and playoff markets.

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FAQ

What does a price in cents mean?

The market’s chance. A contract at 64¢ pays $1 if the outcome happens, so the market puts it at about 64%.

What is usage rate?

The share of a team’s possessions a player finishes with a shot, free throws or a turnover while he is on the floor. 30% or more is a lead scorer.

When does the NBA injury report come out?

By 5 p.m. local the day before a game, then a game-day update between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. local (8 to 10 a.m. for tips at 5 p.m. or earlier; by 1 p.m. on the second night of a back-to-back).

What is a taker fee?

What Kalshi charges when your order fills against one already resting: 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per contract, at most 1.75¢ at 50¢.

More NBA guides

How NBA prediction markets workGuidePrices, market types, fees and US access.2027 NBA champion marketGuideEvery contender on Kalshi and Polymarket US.NBA MVP marketGuideWembanyama, SGA, Doncic and Jokic on both venues.NBA win totals 2026-27GuideEvery team’s Kalshi ladder and the moves behind it.Trading NBA markets in the USGuideKalshi, Polymarket US and polymarket.com.nba_HubEvery NBA tool and guide on Game of Skill.

18+ only. Trading is risky and 100% loss can occur. Offers have limits and are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices move, and this is not advice.