NBA MVP prediction market
Wembanyama is the clear favorite on both venues. Gilgeous-Alexander, the two-time reigning MVP, is second at about half the price.
MVP prices
| Player | Polymarket US | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 28¢ | 33¢ |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 16¢ | 16¢ |
| Luka Doncic | 12¢ | 16¢ |
| Nikola Jokic | 12¢ | – |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 5¢ | – |
| Jayson Tatum | 5¢ | – |
| Anthony Edwards | 3¢ | – |
| Jalen Brunson | 3¢ | – |
| Zion Williamson | 3¢ | – |
- Kalshi prices Wembanyama 5¢ higher than Polymarket US: 33¢ vs 28¢.
- Gilgeous-Alexander has won the last two MVPs and sits at 16¢. Wembanyama won Defensive Player of the Year and finished third in last season’s vote.
- Their teams meet on Opening Night, Thunder at Spurs on Oct 20.
The profiles behind the prices
2025-26 regular season. Finish = last season’s MVP vote. BPM estimates impact per 100 possessions against an average player.
| Player | Price | Finish | Games | Min | Usage | TS% | BPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 28¢ | 3 | 64 | 29.2 | 32.4% | .626 | 10.7 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 16¢ | 1 | 68 | 33.2 | 33.4% | .665 | 11.7 |
| Luka Doncic | 12¢ | 4 | 64 | 35.8 | 38.1% | .616 | 9.3 |
| Nikola Jokic | 12¢ | 2 | 65 | 34.8 | 30.4% | .670 | 14.2 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 5¢ | – | 36 | 28.9 | 37.0% | .658 | 9.5 |
| Jayson Tatum | 5¢ | – | 16 | 32.6 | 30.0% | .541 | 4.8 |
| Anthony Edwards | 3¢ | – | 61 | 35.0 | 31.5% | .617 | 4.5 |
| Jalen Brunson | 3¢ | – | 74 | 35.0 | 30.4% | .580 | 3.1 |
| Zion Williamson | 3¢ | – | 62 | 29.7 | 25.7% | .644 | 2.9 |
| Cade Cunningham | 2¢ | 5 | 64 | 33.9 | 30.5% | .564 | 6.3 |
- Jokic is the furthest from his production. The league’s best BPM last season (+14.2, 1,500+ minutes), the best true shooting of these ten (.670), second in the vote, and tied for third on the board at 12¢.
- Wembanyama’s limit is minutes, not rate. 29.2 a game, the fewest of the top four; Gilgeous-Alexander won at 33.2. Three more minutes a night at his usage is the clearest path up from 28¢.
- Doncic carries the most volume: 38.1% usage in 35.8 minutes, with LeBron now in Philadelphia.
- Giannis and Tatum at 5¢ are availability prices. They played 36 and 16 games; the award needs 65, with narrow exceptions.
- Cunningham finished fifth and trades at 2¢. 30.5% usage and +6.3 BPM for the East’s top seed.
What to watch
- Games played. The award needs 65. That allows 17 missed games all season. A contender who has missed 10 by January has almost no room left.
- Wembanyama’s minutes in the first 10 games. Above 32 a night would be a new level for him. At 29 it is last season again, when he finished third.
- Denver’s record. Jokic’s numbers are already there. A top-two seed is what moves 12¢.
LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant trade at 2¢. At that price a small order moves the price, so the bottom of the board says little.
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Who is favored to win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?
Victor Wembanyama: 28¢ on Polymarket US and 33¢ on Kalshi (Sep 27, 2026).
Who is second?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 16¢ on both venues. Luka Doncic is 16¢ on Kalshi and 12¢ on Polymarket US, level with Nikola Jokic.
When does the MVP market settle?
When the award is announced. Polymarket US closes the market by May 17, 2027.
Does Game of Skill have its own MVP number?
Not yet. Market prices only until our model has been tested against last season.
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