2027 NBA champion prediction market
Spurs and Thunder lead on both venues, a cent apart on Polymarket US and tied on Kalshi. The 76ers and Knicks are next.
Title prices
| Team | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs | 21¢ | 22¢ | Lost Finals to Knicks, 4-1 |
| Thunder | 20¢ | 22¢ | Lost West Finals to Spurs, 4-3 |
| 76ers | 10¢ | 10¢ | Swept by Knicks in East semis |
| Knicks | 9¢ | – | Won the title |
| Heat | 6¢ | – | |
| Lakers | 5¢ | – | |
| Timberwolves | 5¢ | – | |
| Celtics | 4¢ | – |
- The top two hold 41% of the board. The next ten add up to 51¢.
- Kalshi prices the favorites higher: 22¢ each for the Spurs and Thunder, 1 to 2¢ above Polymarket US.
- The Knicks are the defending champions and trade at 9¢, behind a 76ers team they swept in last season’s East semis. Philadelphia added LeBron James this summer.
Stars: minutes, usage and availability
Each contender’s lead player, 2025-26 regular season. BPM estimates a player’s impact per 100 possessions against an average player; +10 is MVP level.
| Team | Title | Player | Games | Min | Usage | TS% | BPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs | 21¢ | Victor Wembanyama | 64 | 29.2 | 32.4% | .626 | 10.7 |
| Thunder | 20¢ | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 68 | 33.2 | 33.4% | .665 | 11.7 |
| 76ers | 10¢ | Joel Embiid | 38 | 31.6 | 33.5% | .605 | 4.9 |
| 76ers | 10¢ | Tyrese Maxey | 70 | 38.0 | 29.4% | .588 | 5.4 |
| Knicks | 9¢ | Jalen Brunson | 74 | 35.0 | 30.4% | .580 | 3.1 |
| Lakers | 5¢ | Luka Doncic | 64 | 35.8 | 38.1% | .616 | 9.3 |
| Timberwolves | 5¢ | Anthony Edwards | 61 | 35.0 | 31.5% | .617 | 4.5 |
| Celtics | 4¢ | Jayson Tatum | 16 | 32.6 | 30.0% | .541 | 4.8 |
| Nuggets | 3¢ | Nikola Jokic | 65 | 34.8 | 30.4% | .670 | 14.2 |
- Only three players topped +10 BPM last season (1,500+ minutes): Jokic +14.2, Gilgeous-Alexander +11.7, Wembanyama +10.7. Two of them lead the title favorites at 20 and 21¢.
- The third plays for a 3¢ team. Jokic also had the best true shooting of this group (.670) in 65 games. Denver’s price is about the roster around him. If the Nuggets start near the top of the West, 3¢ is the board’s most exposed price.
- Availability is priced in unevenly. Embiid played 38 games and Tatum 16. The 76ers (10¢) and Celtics (4¢) prices depend on those two playing 60-plus.
- What to watch: games played by November 15. A lead player past 10 games at his usual minutes is the clearest early signal for a title price.
The rematch
The Spurs beat the Thunder in seven games in the 2026 West Finals, then lost the Finals to the Knicks in five. The two meet again on Opening Night, Oct 20 in San Antonio.
18 teams sit at 1 to 2¢. At those prices a small order moves the price, so the bottom of the board says little.
Track the title race
Related: NBA MVP prediction market · how Kalshi and Polymarket work · trading NBA markets in the US.
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Who is favored to win the 2027 NBA title?
The Spurs and Thunder: 21¢ and 20¢ on Polymarket US, 22¢ each on Kalshi (Sep 27, 2026).
How much has traded?
About $29.6M on Kalshi’s title market as of Sep 27, 2026.
When does it settle?
When the 2027 Finals end. Polymarket US closes the market by June 18, 2027. You can sell at the current price before then.
Does Game of Skill have its own title number?
Not yet. Market prices only until our model has been tested against last season.
More NBA guides
18+ only. Trading is risky and 100% loss can occur. Offers have limits and are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices move, and this is not advice.