NBA win totals 2026-27
All 30 teams on Kalshi and Polymarket US. The Thunder and Spurs are priced near 60 wins, the Kings and Nets for the fewest, and the two venues are at least 4 wins apart on the Clippers.
Kalshi price for the step shown, and each team’s Polymarket US threshold.
How Kalshi win totals work
There is no single number. Each team has a ladder of contracts: 40+, 45+, 50+ and up. A Yes on 50+ pays $1 if the team wins 50 or more regular-season games. The table shows each team’s step closest to even, which is the market’s middle.
| Kalshi price on 50+ | What it says |
|---|---|
| 65¢ | About a 65% chance of 50 or more: the market favors 50-plus |
| 50¢ | A coin flip: 50 is the market’s middle |
| 38¢ | About 38%: the market expects fewer than 50 |
Every team
| Team | Division | Kalshi step | Kalshi | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder | Northwest | 60+ | 67¢ | 61+ |
| Spurs | Southwest | 60+ | 50¢ | 61+ |
| Knicks | Atlantic | 55+ | 38¢ | 52+ |
| 76ers | Atlantic | 50+ | 57¢ | 51+ |
| Celtics | Atlantic | 50+ | 57¢ | 51+ |
| Rockets | Southwest | 50+ | 52¢ | 47+ |
| Pistons | Central | 50+ | 50¢ | 49+ |
| Timberwolves | Northwest | 50+ | 47¢ | 48+ |
| Nuggets | Northwest | 50+ | 45¢ | 49+ |
| Lakers | Pacific | 50+ | 42¢ | 45+ |
| Cavaliers | Central | 50+ | 40¢ | 48+ |
| Raptors | Atlantic | 45+ | 63¢ | 46+ |
| Heat | Southeast | 45+ | 58¢ | 47+ |
| Hawks | Southeast | 45+ | 53¢ | 43+ |
| Pacers | Central | 45+ | 48¢ | 44+ |
| Magic | Southeast | 45+ | 47¢ | 44+ |
| Trail Blazers | Northwest | 40+ | 61¢ | 42+ |
| Suns | Pacific | 40+ | 53¢ | 41+ |
| Warriors | Pacific | 40+ | 51¢ | 41+ |
| Hornets | Southeast | 40+ | 48¢ | 39+ |
| Jazz | Northwest | 40+ | 47¢ | 36+ |
| Mavericks | Southwest | 35+ | 50¢ | 35+ |
| Wizards | Southeast | 35+ | 48¢ | 36+ |
| Clippers | Pacific | 30+ | 55¢ | 26+ |
| Grizzlies | Southwest | 30+ | 53¢ | 29+ |
| Bulls | Central | 30+ | 52¢ | 28+ |
| Pelicans | Southwest | 30+ | 47¢ | 27+ |
| Bucks | Central | 30+ | 41¢ | 25+ |
| Nets | Atlantic | 25+ | 57¢ | 24+ |
| Kings | Pacific | 25+ | 44¢ | 21+ |
Kalshi, Sep 25, 2026; Polymarket US, Sep 27, 2026. Each team links to its Kalshi market; every Polymarket US market is on one board.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US
The two venues sell win totals differently. Kalshi sells a ladder of five-win steps for each team. Polymarket US sells one win threshold per team, set near the middle, such as Knicks 52+ or Clippers 26+.
Where Kalshi favors a team reaching a step that sits above Polymarket US’s threshold, the two venues disagree on direction. Four teams show a gap of 2 wins or more:
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Apart by at least |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clippers | 30+ at 55¢: favors 30-plus | 26+ | 4 wins |
| Rockets | 50+ at 52¢: favors 50-plus | 47+ | 3 wins |
| Hawks | 45+ at 53¢: favors 45-plus | 43+ | 2 wins |
| Bulls | 30+ at 52¢: favors 30-plus | 28+ | 2 wins |
- Kalshi is higher on all four. On the other 26 teams, both venues point the same way.
- Polymarket US prices are thin so far. On several teams both the Yes and the No cost more than 50¢, which means a wide gap between buyers and sellers. Read the Polymarket US threshold as the market’s middle, and use Kalshi’s ladder for the price.
- The biggest split is the most rebuilt roster. The Clippers lost Leonard, Mathurin, Collins and Bogdanovic this summer and added Ingram; Garland arrived in February. Preseason minutes will show which venue has it right first.
Where the roster changed the price
Usage = share of team possessions a player finished while on the floor. 2025-26 regular season. Moves are as reported.
| Team | Kalshi | Change | Player | Games | Min | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76ers | 50+ · 57¢ | Added | Jaylen Brown | 71 | 34.4 | 36.2% |
| 76ers | Added | LeBron James | 60 | 33.1 | 27.2% | |
| Celtics | 50+ · 57¢ | Lost | Jaylen Brown | 71 | 34.4 | 36.2% |
| Heat | 45+ · 58¢ | Added | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 36 | 28.9 | 37.0% |
| Bucks | 30+ · 41¢ | Lost | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 36 | 28.9 | 37.0% |
| Clippers | 30+ · 55¢ | Lost | Kawhi Leonard | 65 | 32.1 | 33.5% |
| Clippers | Added | Brandon Ingram | 77 | 33.8 | 26.9% | |
| Nets | 25+ · 57¢ | Added | Julius Randle | 79 | 33.0 | 26.5% |
| Thunder | 60+ · 67¢ | Lost | Dort, Joe, Wiggins | – | 69.8 combined | – |
- 76ers, 50+ at 57¢. Brown (36.2%), Embiid (33.5%), Maxey (29.4%) and LeBron (27.2%) used a combined 126% of their teams’ possessions last season. Embiid played 38 games; LeBron turns 42 in December. Philadelphia won 45 without Brown or LeBron. This price was 46¢ before LeBron’s signing on July 24 and has held 55 to 59¢ since late August.
- Giannis is the highest-usage player to move this summer: 37.0% usage in 28.9 minutes, but only 36 games. The Heat’s 45+ (58¢) depends on those games; the Bucks at 30+ (41¢) are priced to fall short of 30.
- Clippers, 30+ at 55¢. Leonard left with 33.5% usage over 65 games. Ingram brings 26.9% over 77 games and Garland 27.4% over 45. Two high-usage creators, one of them with an availability question.
- Thunder, 60+ at 67¢. Dort, Joe and Wiggins left: 69.8 rotation minutes a night, mostly low usage. Gilgeous-Alexander (33.4% usage, 68 games) is unchanged. Their 60+ price is still the highest in the league.
- Pacers, 45+ at 48¢. Indiana went 19-63 with Tyrese Haliburton out all season after his Achilles tear. He is back, and 40+ trades at 71¢, a 21-win jump on last season just to reach it.
- Jazz, 40+ near 47¢: the most-traded win total on Kalshi, after a 22-60 season. Markkanen (28.1% usage) played 42 games and Keyonte George (27.9%) 54. The price is really about games played.
What to watch
- Games played by the lead players. Embiid, Giannis, Garland, Markkanen and George all missed 25-plus games last season. For teams built around one player, games missed move these ladders more than anything else.
- Minutes in the first 10 games. LeBron and Haliburton minutes limits would show up in the Philadelphia and Indiana prices before the standings do.
- Opening Night, Oct 20. The 76ers play at the Knicks, the Thunder at the Spurs, and the Celtics at the Pistons: six teams priced at 50 wins or higher.
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What are the NBA win totals for 2026-27?
Polymarket US has the Thunder and Spurs at 61+ and the Kings at 21+. On Kalshi the Thunder are 67¢ to win 60 or more and the Kings 44¢ to win 25 or more. All 30 teams are in the table above.
How do prediction market win totals work?
Kalshi sells each team in five-win steps (40+, 45+, 50+); Polymarket US sells one win threshold per team (Knicks 52+). A Yes pays $1 if the team reaches that many regular-season wins. The price is the market’s chance of getting there.
When do NBA win totals settle?
When the regular season ends. It is scheduled to finish on April 11, 2027, with all 30 teams playing. Playoff games do not count.
Does Game of Skill have its own win projections?
Not yet. Market prices only until our model has been tested against last season.
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