How golf prices move from Thursday to Sunday

Updated Nov 1, 2026. All prices as of 1:32 PM ET on Nov 1.

A golf tournament price barely settles on anyone until the weekend: at this week’s VidantaWorld Mexico Open the favorite was 5¢ at noon on Thursday, and Andrew Novak was 89¢ on Kalshi with the final round under way on Sunday. Each price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if that player wins, so 89¢ means the market gives Novak about an 89% chance. PGA WIRE charts the whole week.

Before the first tee: everyone is cheap

A tournament is one market with a contract for every player in the field. Next week’s World Wide Technology Championship lists 120 players, and none had traded yet as of 1:32 PM ET Sunday. With that many players sharing about $1, most sit at 1¢ or less, and even the favorite often starts in single digits. The field is everyone else: a favorite at 18¢ leaves 82¢ spread across the rest. What each market pays, from the winner to top 10s and the cut, is set out in our guide to PGA prediction markets.

Thursday and Friday: the favorite keeps changing

Early rounds move prices in small steps because most of the field is still in contention. This week, on Kalshi:

  • Thursday noon: Ben Griffin becomes the favorite at 5¢

  • Thursday 7 PM: Doug Ghim takes over at 11¢

  • Thursday 8 PM: Griffin back on top at 11¢

  • Friday 7 PM: Novak takes over at 20¢

Three changes of favorite in two days, and nobody above 20¢. Round-leader and make-the-cut markets settle in these days too, on PGA Rounds.

The weekend: prices pile onto the leader

Once a player leads into Saturday, the price concentrates fast. Novak went from 20¢ on Friday evening to near 89¢ by early Sunday, while Griffin fell from 9¢ to 1¢ on Saturday afternoon, his low for the week, and Ghim dropped from 9¢ to 4¢ that evening. The leaders on Kalshi as of 1:32 PM ET Sunday:

  • Andrew Novak: 89¢

  • Doug Ghim: 3¢

  • Matthieu Pavon: 3¢

  • Ben Griffin: 1¢

  • Max Greyserman: 1¢

A leader at 89¢ still loses about one time in nine at that price. PGA WIRE logs every move of 2¢ or more in six hours and every new favorite, so a Sunday collapse shows up as it happens.

Kalshi and Polymarket during the week

The same player can cost a different amount on each app, most often on longshots and early in the week. PGA Market lists both and marks the cheaper one: lower is better, since a 6¢ buy pays more than a 7¢ buy for the same result. On a 1¢ or 2¢ longshot the fee is a big share of the price, so compare after fees. When a gap is very large, check that both markets are open and trading before treating it as real.

Who beats their price over a season

One week is a small sample, so Expected tracks top-10 finishes against pre-tournament prices over many events. Over the last 12 months Wyndham Clark has 6 top 10s from 2.1 expected in 12 priced events, and Sudarshan Yellamaraju 3 from 0.6 expected in 7. Both were 0¢ to win this week. Season-long markets, like the 2027 Ryder Cup (Europe 56¢, USA 24¢, on only $4K traded), are on PGA Futures.

FAQ

How much do golf prices change during a tournament?

A lot. This week the favorite went from 5¢ on Thursday to 20¢ on Friday evening to near 89¢ on Sunday, with three changes of favorite along the way.

Why is everyone so cheap before the first round?

A field of 120 or more players shares about $1 between them, so even the favorite usually starts in single digits.

When do golf prices move the most?

Over the weekend, once a leader forms. Thursday and Friday moves are small and spread across the field.

Where can I see golf prices live?

PGA WIRE charts the leaders all week, PGA Market has every player on both apps, and PGA Rounds has the cut and round leaders.

18+ only. Trading is risky and 100% loss can occur. Not advice.