season sim_
What it is. Every remaining regular-season game is played out thousands of times from market ratings (each team’s pre-game prices this season, adjusted for opponents) plus a home edge measured from this season’s prices. Standings, seeds and the playoffs are played too.
How to read it. A sim chance of 64% means the team did it in 64 of every 100 simulated seasons. The Kalshi column is the futures price for the same thing (48¢ = a 48% chance). Gap is sim minus price, in points: green when the sim is 5+ higher, red when 5+ lower.
Limits. The sim knows ratings and the schedule, not injuries or news, so a gap is a reason to look, not a pick. Tiebreakers are simplified (record, head-to-head, division record, coin flip).
Tap a team to make it the winner of that game. Every view (chances, chart, a played season) re-runs with your picks, and the page link keeps them to share.
Common questions
How does the season sim work?
Each team gets a rating from its pre-game prices this season, adjusted for opponents (the same rating as our power rankings), plus a home edge measured from this season’s prices. Every remaining game is then played out with those chances, the standings and playoff seeds are worked out, and the playoffs are played too. That repeats thousands of times; a team’s playoff chance is the share of seasons it made it.
Why compare it with Kalshi?
Futures prices are the market’s own read on the same questions. When the sim says 41% and Kalshi prices 28¢, one of them is wrong. The sim only knows ratings and the schedule; the market knows injuries, trades and news the sim doesn’t. Treat a gap as a reason to look, not as a pick.
How are ties in the standings broken?
Simplified: record first, then head-to-head, then (NFL) division record, then a coin flip. The official rules go further, so a team in a tight race can be placed a spot differently, mostly late in the season.
Is this advice?
No. It’s a model of the season from market ratings, shown next to market prices. Check the latest prices and news before trading.
Related tools
Futures prices, wins against expectations, and today’s games.