How college football prediction markets work
Updated Nov 1, 2026. All prices as of 1:33 PM ET on Nov 1.
A college football prediction market price is the cost, in cents, of a contract that pays $1 if a team wins, so Notre Dame at 65¢ on Polymarket means the market gives the Irish about a 65% chance against Miami on Saturday. Kalshi and Polymarket both list college football games, and CFB WIRE shows the busiest ones on both apps with every move.
What a price means
Each game is a yes/no market on each team. A buy at 65¢ returns $1 if Notre Dame wins, a 35¢ profit, and nothing if they lose. The two sides add up to about $1, so Miami sit at 35¢. Prices are before fees, and each app shows its fee before you confirm an order.
Saturday’s big games, by price
The favorite in eight of the Nov 7 games, on Polymarket as of 1:33 PM ET on Nov 1:
Ohio State vs Oregon: 75¢
South Carolina vs Texas A&M: 71¢
Notre Dame vs Miami: 65¢
Tennessee vs Kentucky: 65¢
Utah vs BYU: 64¢
LSU vs Alabama: 63¢
Texas at Missouri: 59¢
Georgia at Ole Miss: 58¢
Miami are 8-0 and still 35¢ underdogs at Notre Dame (7-1). Most of these markets are thin six days out: Alabama at LSU had $1K traded and Oregon at Ohio State under $1K, so small trades can move them until the week fills in. Kalshi had every one of these within 2¢ of Polymarket.
How often favorites win
Through Oct 31, underdogs have won 227 of 1,045 college football games with a clear favorite this season, 22%. Favorites priced 70¢ or more have won 632 of 739, 86%, and their prices said 86%. Across a season, a 70¢-plus favorite has won about as often as its price implied, which is what a price is supposed to do.
Upsets by price
The biggest upset of the season so far by pre-game price: Oklahoma State beat Oregon as a 7¢ underdog on Sep 12. On Saturday night Fresno State beat Oregon State as a 32¢ underdog, the biggest upset of the slate. CFB WIRE keeps each game’s chart, so you can see where the price was at kickoff and how it moved during the game.
Ratings that cut through records
CFB power rankings rate every team from its pre-game prices, adjusted for opponents. Through Oct 31, Notre Dame (7-1) and Texas (6-2) share the top rating at 83, ahead of Ohio State (81). Miami’s 8-0 rates 76, sixth. Texas has faced the toughest schedule in the country by market ratings; Liberty (7-1) the softest. Expected shows every team’s results against what its game prices said.
FAQ
How do college football prediction markets pay out?
A contract pays $1 if your team wins and nothing if it loses. A 65¢ buy makes 35¢ of profit on a win, before fees.
What does 65¢ mean on Kalshi or Polymarket?
About a 65% chance, as the market sees it. The two sides of a game add up to about $1.
How often do college football favorites win?
This season underdogs have won 22% of games with a clear favorite, and favorites at 70¢ or more have won 86%, in line with their prices.
Why are some college football prices thin?
Many games trade under $1K until closer to kickoff, so one order can move the price. CFB WIRE shows the amount traded on every game it covers.
Are there college football games during the week?
Yes. This week has Mid-American Conference games on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, starting with Ohio at Akron on Tuesday at 7 PM ET (Ohio 81¢), and Virginia Tech at SMU on Friday (SMU 68¢).
Where can I see college football prices live?
CFB WIRE shows the price chart, both apps and the score for the busiest games each Saturday, and Radar posts the season’s upsets and favorites’ records as they happen.
18+ only. Trading is risky and 100% loss can occur. Not advice.