How often do favorites win on Kalshi?
Updated Nov 12, 2026. All numbers as of 1:22 PM ET on Nov 12.
Kalshi favorites have won 68.9% of 5,012 sports games this season, and their pre-game prices said 68.5%. The higher the price, the more often the favorite won: teams priced 90¢ to 99¢ won 96% of the time, and teams priced 50¢ to 59¢ won 55%.
Every number here is graded from Kalshi prices just before each game started, across the NBA, NFL, NHL, college football and CS2. The live table is on our Market Accuracy page, which updates after every result.
How often Kalshi favorites win at each price
Group every favorite by its pre-game price and the win rate lands close to the price in every band. Each line is the share of favorites in that band that won, with the number of games.
90–99¢ favorites: won 96% (412 games)
80–89¢ favorites: won 84% (621 games)
70–79¢ favorites: won 74% (1,012 games)
60–69¢ favorites: won 67% (1,346 games)
50–59¢ favorites: won 55% (1,621 games)
Every band sits inside its normal range for that many games, which the accuracy page marks “on target.” Overall, favorites were priced at 68.5% and won 68.9%, a gap of 0.4 points.
How often favorites win by sport
The overall match hides some spread between sports. NHL and NBA favorites have won more often than their prices said so far, while college football and CS2 favorites have landed almost exactly on their prices.
NBA: priced 67.1%, won 72.4% (170 games)
NFL: priced 65.7%, won 67.4% (135 games)
NHL: priced 58.9%, won 63.1% (290 games)
College football: priced 76.4%, won 76.3% (1,158 games)
CS2: priced 66.8%, won 66.7% (3,259 games)
The accuracy page marks every sport on target, so each gap is within normal luck for its sample. The NBA and NFL samples are still small this early in the season (170 and 135 games), so their gaps can move a few points in a week.
How often underdogs win in the NBA
The other side of the same games is on our NBA Upsets page. Underdogs priced 40¢ to 47¢ won 21 of 50 (42%, priced 44%), 30¢ to 39¢ won 14 of 48 (29%, priced 36%), and 20¢ to 29¢ won 9 of 38 (24%, priced 26%). No NBA underdog priced under 20¢ has won yet (0 of 28). The lowest-priced winner so far is the Hornets at 26¢ over the Cavaliers on Nov 9 (164 games, as of 1:23 PM ET).
How accurate Kalshi prices are
Accurate here means calibrated: favorites in each price band win about as often as the band says. Across all five sports the gap between price and result is 0.4 points over 5,012 games, and no band from 50¢ to 99¢ misses by more than 4 points.
Price accuracy and trading results are different questions. Fees and the gap between the bid and the ask come out of every trade, whatever the win rate.
To check a game before it starts, compare Kalshi and Polymarket side by side on our Market page, and see which teams keep beating their prices on Expected.
FAQ
How often are Kalshi prices accurate?
Across 5,012 sports games this season, Kalshi favorites were priced at 68.5% before the start and won 68.9%. Every price band from 50¢ to 99¢ landed within its normal range.
How often do the favorites win?
On Kalshi this season, favorites have won 68.9% of NBA, NFL, NHL, college football and CS2 games. Favorites priced 90¢ or more won 96%, and those priced 50¢ to 59¢ won 55%.
How often do people win on Kalshi?
This page grades prices, not accounts, so it shows how often each side won rather than how individual traders did. A trader’s results depend on the prices paid, fees and the spread between bid and ask, not only on how often favorites win.