IEM Rio 2026 Opening Day Preview - CS2 Picks & Prediction Markets
IEM Rio 2026 kicks off Monday, April 13 with eight BO3 matches across a full day of CS2. Markets are not out for the games on Kalshi just yet, but should be shortly. New users get $10 when they trade $10 using code SKILL.
Opening Day Games & Implied Probabilities
G2 vs Gentle Mates (09:00) — G2 implied at 78% and looking good with NertZ addition. Gentle Mates are +230 underdogs.
UPDATE: huNter has been ruled out for the tournament due to an injury, so G2 will have to play with an academy player as the fifth. Big blow for G2’s chances at the tournament.
Vitality vs RED Canids (09:00) — Vitality the heavy favorite, of course. RED Canids are a Brazilian wildcard on home soil at +1000.
Falcons vs 3DMAX (11:30) — Falcons priced around 93% to win. 3DMAX missed out on the major but has started to turn things around again lately.
Spirit vs Liquid (11:30) — Spirit at roughly 93% as well. donk and company should be able to win 2-0 over an inconsistent Liquid squad.
Na’Vi vs B8 (14:00) — Na’Vi around 88%. B8 have shown they can be competitive and the +400 price reflects that this is not a walkover.
Mousesports vs Legacy (14:00) — mouz around 82%. Legacy at +280 is the most watchable underdog price of the afternoon window. Spinx is my favorite player here.
Aurora vs HOTU (16:30) — Aurora around 88%, but wouldn’t be surprised if HOTU keeps things competitive here.
FURIA vs Passion UA (16:30) — FURIA at roughly 89% on home soil. KSCERATO and molodoy the top individual targets, while YEKINDAR is a wildcard with a low floor but high ceiling.
Way Too Early Picks
G2 > Gentle Mates 2-0
Vitality > RED Canids 2-0
Falcons > 3DMAX 2-1
Spirit > Liquid 2-0
Na’Vi > B8 2-1
Mousesports > Legacy 2-0
Aurora > HOTU 2-1
FURIA > Passion UA 2-0
Keep checking the Analysis section for more in-depth player and team breakdowns as we get closer to the event.