Which NFL teams are beating their prices?

Updated Nov 7, 2026. All prices as of 1:25 PM ET on Nov 7.

The Minnesota Vikings (6-1) are beating expectations by more than any other NFL team this season: they have won 2.1 more games than Kalshi’s pre-game prices expected, as of Nov 7. The Cleveland Browns (5-3, 2.0 above) and Denver Broncos (6-2, 1.9 above) are next, while the Los Angeles Chargers (0-7, 2.9 below) and Houston Texans (2-5, 2.2 below) have fallen furthest short. Every number here comes from Expected, which updates after each settled game.

Small sample: 121 games have settled so far, so each team has played 6 to 9. One result is a bigger share of an NFL season than of an NBA one, so these gaps can swing a full win in a single week.

How vs expected works

Before every game, Kalshi lists a price for each team to win. Expected takes the last price the day before kickoff and adds those prices across a team’s games: 70¢ one week and 40¢ the next is 1.1 expected wins. Actual wins minus expected wins is the vs-expected number. Above zero, the team has won more often than its prices said; below zero, less.

Schedule strength is the average market rating of the opponents a team has played, where a team’s rating is its average pre-game win price. 1st toughest means the strongest set of opponents in the league; 32nd means the weakest.

Teams furthest ahead of their prices

  • Minnesota Vikings: 6-1 against 3.9 expected wins, +2.1, 27th-toughest schedule

  • Cleveland Browns: 5-3 against 3.0, +2.0, 18th-toughest

  • Denver Broncos: 6-2 against 4.1, +1.9, toughest in the league

  • Chicago Bears: 6-2 against 4.3, +1.7, 12th-toughest

  • San Francisco 49ers: 6-1 against 4.3, +1.7, 30th-toughest

  • New York Giants: 4-2 against 2.4, +1.6, 24th-toughest

  • Buffalo Bills: 6-1 against 4.4, +1.6, 5th-toughest

  • Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-2 against 4.4, +1.6, 28th-toughest

Denver’s gap is the one built against the strongest opponents: no team has faced a tougher schedule by market rating. Cleveland are the opposite shape: 5-3 is a modest record, but prices gave the Browns only 3.0 wins, one of the lowest expected totals in the league. San Francisco’s 6-1 has come against the 30th-toughest schedule, so the 49ers’ gap carries less weight than Denver’s or Buffalo’s.

Teams furthest behind their prices

  • Los Angeles Chargers: 0-7 against 2.9 expected wins, -2.9, 4th-toughest schedule

  • Houston Texans: 2-5 against 4.2, -2.2, 10th-toughest

  • Dallas Cowboys: 3-5 against 4.8, -1.8, 29th-toughest

  • Philadelphia Eagles: 2-6 against 3.7, -1.7, 19th-toughest

  • New York Jets: 2-6 against 3.5, -1.5, easiest in the league

  • Tennessee Titans: 1-7 against 2.4, -1.4, 22nd-toughest

The Chargers are the only winless team, and prices expected nearly three wins from their seven games, so theirs is the widest gap in the league in either direction. Dallas stand out on schedule: 3-5 against the 29th-toughest set of opponents, when prices expected 4.8 wins. The Jets have played the easiest schedule of all 32 teams and are still 1.5 wins short.

Overs and unders against the market total

Expected also tracks how each team’s games finish against Kalshi’s pre-game total points.

  • Detroit Lions: 5-0 to the over (100%), average total 51.7, the highest of any team

  • Buffalo Bills: 5-1 to the over (83%), average total 51.3

  • Minnesota Vikings: 1-4 to the over (20%), average total 43.1

  • Los Angeles Chargers: 1-5 to the over (17%), average total 44.5

  • Denver Broncos: 1-5 to the over (17%), average total 44.0

Minnesota and Denver sit near the top of the vs-expected list while their games keep finishing under the total: 2 overs in 11 games between them. Buffalo are the one team high on both lists, 1.6 wins above their prices with 5 of 6 games over.

Where to look before kickoff

Vs expected is a record, not a forecast. For this week’s games, NFL Market shows Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side, NFL WIRE charts every price move live, and NFL Usage shows how Kalshi’s player markets split each team’s receiving yards. NFL power rankings rate all 32 teams by their average pre-game price. For how the prices themselves work, read how NFL prediction markets work.

FAQ

Which NFL team is beating expectations by the most?

The Minnesota Vikings: 6-1 against 3.9 expected wins, 2.1 above their Kalshi prices as of Nov 7. The Cleveland Browns are next at 2.0 above.

Which NFL team is furthest below expectations?

The Los Angeles Chargers: 0-7 against 2.9 expected wins, 2.9 below. The Houston Texans are next at 2.2 below.

What does 2.1 wins above expected mean?

The team has won 2.1 more games than its pre-game prices added up to. A team priced at 50¢ in each of 4 games is expected to win 2; winning all 4 puts it 2.0 above.

Which prices does Expected use?

Kalshi’s settled NFL game markets, using the last price the day before each game. Results usually appear within a couple of hours of the final.

How often is this page updated?

The tables here are refreshed weekly, after Monday Night Football. Expected itself updates after every settled game. The NBA version is Which NBA teams are beating their prices.