Which NBA teams are beating their prices?

Updated Nov 3, 2026. All prices as of 1:10 PM ET on Nov 3.

The Memphis Grizzlies (6-1) and Philadelphia 76ers (7-1) are beating expectations by more than any other NBA team this season: each has won 2.2 more games than Kalshi’s pre-game prices expected, as of Nov 3. The Indiana Pacers (2-6, 2.2 below) and Miami Heat (2-5, 2.0 below) have fallen furthest short. Every number here comes from Expected, which updates after each settled game.

Small sample: 107 games have settled so far, so each team has played 5 to 8. Gaps this early usually shrink as games add up.

How vs expected works

Before every game, Kalshi lists a price for each team to win. A 70¢ price means about a 70% chance. Expected takes the last price the day before tip and adds those prices across a team’s games: 70¢ one night and 40¢ the next is 1.1 expected wins. Actual wins minus expected wins is the vs-expected number. Above zero, the team has won more often than its prices said; below zero, less.

Schedule strength is the average market rating of the opponents a team has played, where a team’s rating is its average pre-game win price. It shows whether a gap came against strong or weak opponents.

Teams furthest ahead of their prices

  • Memphis Grizzlies: 6-1 against 3.8 expected wins, +2.2, 30th-toughest schedule

  • Philadelphia 76ers: 7-1 against 4.8, +2.2, 17th-toughest

  • Detroit Pistons: 6-1 against 3.9, +2.1, 10th-toughest

  • Houston Rockets: 7-1 against 4.9, +2.1, 12th-toughest

  • Dallas Mavericks: 4-3 against 2.5, +1.5, 4th-toughest

  • Portland Trail Blazers: 5-1 against 3.5, +1.5, 23rd-toughest

  • Golden State Warriors: 5-3 against 3.6, +1.4, 13th-toughest

Memphis have played the easiest schedule in the league (30th of 30), so their lead comes against the weakest set of opponents. Dallas are the opposite case: 4-3 is a modest record, but prices gave them only 2.5 wins against the 4th-toughest schedule. Philadelphia and Houston have the most wins of the group, 7 each.

Teams furthest behind their prices

  • Indiana Pacers: 2-6 against 4.2 expected wins, -2.2, 29th-toughest schedule

  • Miami Heat: 2-5 against 4.0, -2.0, 16th-toughest

  • New York Knicks: 3-4 against 4.5, -1.5, 20th-toughest

  • Utah Jazz: 1-6 against 2.4, -1.4, toughest in the league

  • LA Clippers: 1-6 against 2.4, -1.4, 8th-toughest

The Knicks stand out here: prices expected 4.5 wins, more than for any other team below .500, so a 3-4 start leaves them 1.5 short. Utah’s 1-6 is closer to what prices said than it looks, because the Jazz have faced the toughest schedule in the league and were expected to win only 2.4. Indiana’s gap came against the 29th-toughest schedule.

Overs and unders against the market total

Expected also tracks how each team’s games finish against Kalshi’s pre-game total points.

  • Phoenix Suns: 4-1 to the over (80%), average total 227.3

  • New Orleans Pelicans: 5-2 to the over (71%), average total 238.8, the highest of any team

  • Charlotte Hornets: 1-7 to the over (13%), average total 221.0, the lowest of any team

  • Philadelphia 76ers: 1-7 to the over (13%), average total 231.4

  • New York Knicks: 1-6 to the over (14%), average total 226.2

Philadelphia appear on both lists: 2.2 wins above their prices, with 7 of their 8 games finishing under the total.

Where to look before tip-off

Vs expected is a record, not a forecast. For tonight’s games, NBA Market shows Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side, NBA WIRE charts every price move live, and NBA Usage shows who carries each team’s shots. NBA power rankings rate all 30 teams by their average pre-game price.

FAQ

Which NBA team is beating expectations by the most?

The Grizzlies and 76ers, tied at 2.2 wins above what Kalshi’s day-before prices expected (as of Nov 3). Memphis are 6-1 against 3.8 expected wins; Philadelphia are 7-1 against 4.8.

Which NBA team is furthest below expectations?

The Pacers, 2-6 against 4.2 expected wins, 2.2 below. The Heat are next at 2.0 below.

What does 2.2 wins above expected mean?

The team has won 2.2 more games than the sum of its pre-game win prices. A team priced at 50¢ in each of 8 games is expected to win 4; winning 6 puts it 2.0 above.

Which prices does Expected use?

Kalshi’s settled NBA game markets, using the last price the day before each game. Results usually appear within a couple of hours of the final.

How often is this page updated?

The tables here are refreshed weekly. Expected itself updates after every settled game.