Heat vs Raptors NBA Preseason Prediction and Preview, Oct 3

Written By Scott Krones

The Heat and Raptors open the NBA preseason on Saturday, October 3, at 7:00 PM ET in Quebec City.

  • Price: Heat 51¢, Raptors 49¢ (Polymarket, as of Fri 5:02 PM ET)

  • Live price and every move: NBA WIRE

What the price says

Close to a coin flip: the Heat are 51¢ and the Raptors 49¢. The Raptors are listed as the home team in Quebec City. The Heat opened at 42¢, so the price has moved 9¢ toward them since. With availability unclear until close to tip, expect this price to move.

Who actually plays

Starters typically get a quarter or two of work, and a couple may not dress at all. Most of the second half goes to young players and camp invites fighting for the last roster spots, which is why preseason scores swing late and why this price leans on who is expected to suit up more than on either team’s best five.

The storylines

  • A first for Quebec City. Saturday’s game at Centre Vidéotron is the first NBA game ever played in the city and opens the league’s preseason, part of the NBA Canada Games. It airs on NBA TV.

  • Giannis in a Heat jersey. It is Giannis Antetokounmpo’s first game for Miami after 13 seasons in Milwaukee. He used 37.0% of the Bucks’ possessions last season but played only 36 games.

  • Kawhi’s second stint starts. Kawhi Leonard’s trade back to Toronto became official in September, with Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick going to the Clippers. Asked this week whether Leonard will play Saturday, Darko Rajaković would not commit.

  • Next up. Both teams have four more preseason games before the season. Toronto opens at home against the Bulls on Oct. 21; Miami hosts the Timberwolves.

Availability

As of Fri 5:02 PM ET. Statuses can change up to tip; in preseason, teams often rest healthy players without listing them.

  • Keshad Johnson (Heat): Out, hamstring, expected back Oct 26

  • Dru Smith (Heat): Day-To-Day, right calf, expected back Oct 16

  • Myron Gardner (Heat): Day-To-Day, left ankle, expected back Oct 3

Who could play: last season’s numbers

Last season’s numbers on this season’s rosters.

Heat

  • Bam Adebayo: 32.4 min, 25.0% usage, .551 TS%, 73 games

  • Andrew Wiggins: 30.3 min, 19.7% usage, .586 TS%, 68 games

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo: 28.9 min, 37.0% usage, .658 TS%, 36 games (new, was MIL)

  • Davion Mitchell: 28.6 min, 13.6% usage, .582 TS%, 70 games

  • Tim Hardaway Jr.: 26.6 min, 18.5% usage, .624 TS%, 80 games (new, was DEN)

Raptors

  • Scottie Barnes: 33.5 min, 23.4% usage, .577 TS%, 80 games

  • Kawhi Leonard: 32.1 min, 33.5% usage, .629 TS%, 65 games (new, was LAC)

  • Immanuel Quickley: 31.9 min, 21.1% usage, .577 TS%, 70 games

  • RJ Barrett: 30.3 min, 25.8% usage, .585 TS%, 57 games

  • Jakob Poeltl: 25.0 min, 15.3% usage, .698 TS%, 46 games

What moves the Heat vs Raptors price

  • Who suits up. Preseason availability usually comes from the teams and from each coach’s pregame media session, 60 to 90 minutes before tip. A star ruled out late can move the price several cents.

  • Second-half rotations. Regulars often sit after halftime, so bench, two-way and camp players close the game. A first-quarter lead can disappear.

  • Thin trading. Preseason markets carry less money, so one large order moves the price further. There is a lot of variance, so be responsible with your trading!

Follow every move on NBA WIRE and compare Kalshi and Polymarket on NBA MARKET.

FAQ

Who is favored in Heat vs Raptors?

The Heat, at 51¢ on Polymarket against 49¢ for the Raptors (Fri 5:02 PM ET). The price updates live on NBA WIRE.

When and where is Heat vs Raptors?

Saturday, October 3, at 7:00 PM ET, in Quebec City.

Do starters play in preseason games?

Usually, but not for long. Most starters play a quarter or two, a few sit out completely, and plans can change on the day. Each coach’s pregame media session, 60 to 90 minutes before tip, is the best guide.

Prices move constantly and are not advice. New to prediction markets? Start with how NBA prediction markets work.

Scott Krones