PGL Astana 2026 Grand Final: Spirit vs. Falcons

It's Sunday, May 17th, PGL Astana 2026 Grand Final Day. A BO3 third-place decider in the morning is followed by the BO5 final between Spirit and Falcons.

THE GAMES

Let's dive right in. Percentages are approximate win probabilities based on available odds.

MOUZ vs Magic, 4:00 AM ET (Third-Place Decider, BO3)

MOUZ heavily favored at 78%, magic at 22%. magic has overperformed expectations all event and have nothing to lose in this third-place game.

Mousesports have the experience and skill depth edge across the board. That blowout defeat to Spirit in the semis was rough, but I expect a bounce-back sweep of magic here.

Pick: MOUZ > magic 2-0
Top Projection: Spinx
Top Leverage: jL

Spirit vs Falcons, 8:00 AM ET (Grand Final, BO5)

Falcons favored at 57%, Spirit at 43%. The two best teams in Astana, exactly as it should be. This should be pretty epic!

Spirit has been rolling through PGL with donk doing donk things, but Falcons has been looking more and more comfortable under karrigan’s leadership. With m0NESY, kyousuke and NiKo, they’re one of the few teams with the firepower to combat donk.

Pick: Falcons > Spirit 3-2
Top Projection: donk
Top Leverage: m0NESY

Win probabilities are approximate and subject to change. Always check current numbers before locking decisions.

For player-level ratings check CARNAGE over the coming days. For game-level fair values see MARKET. There is also a new tool, RANGE, which shows distributions on a player and team level.

Good luck!