Inner Circle vs 3DMAX Prediction and Picks: Play Connect Semifinal, Tuesday 12:00 PM ET

Logitech G Play Connect semifinals, LAN in Poland. Prices are approximate and were taken Monday morning ET.

Editor's note: prices on these games move right up to lock. The WIRE logs every move as it happens, so if you are reading this the morning of, check it before you act on anything below.

The game

Inner Circle play 3DMAX in the second semifinal at 12:00 PM ET, best of three. Inner Circle topped Group B to reach this round. 3DMAX beat M80 in the quarterfinal.

The market has moved toward Inner Circle. They were in the mid-50s over the weekend and sit at 62 to 63 cents this morning, with 3DMAX at 39 to 40. We make this close to even: Inner Circle 52.1 percent, approximately, 3DMAX 47.9. That leaves 3DMAX about eight points below our number, the biggest gap on Tuesday's board.

How the series is likely to go

Every result is live. Inner Circle 2-0 comes out at 27 percent, Inner Circle 2-1 at 26, 3DMAX 2-1 at 24 and 3DMAX 2-0 at 24. A third map is a coin flip at 50 percent, and Inner Circle take map one about 51 percent of the time.

Map prices

Inner Circle -1.5 is 37 cents against our 26.5 percent, so the market has the sweep more than ten points higher than we do. 3DMAX +1.5 is 65 cents against our 73.5, the same eight to nine point gap as the series, from the other direction. Total maps is 50 cents for three, level with our 50.

Players

Dawy is Inner Circle's top-rated player at 90 and our most likely top fragger in the game, about one in four. headtr1ck is their AWP at 87, about 14 percent, and cptkurtka023 (85) is the third option at about one in ten. zeRRoFIX (80) and onic (76), who calls, round it out.

3DMAX run through Maka, rated 89, who both calls and holds the AWP, and still carries about a 21 percent chance to top the game. Kursy (86) is next at about 13 percent, with misutaaa and Lucky (82 each) and Graviti (77) behind.

The read

We have this as close to a coin flip, and the price has Inner Circle as a clear favorite. On our numbers the side is 3DMAX, and the cleaner way to hold it is 3DMAX +1.5, which only needs one map.

The numbers behind this

Every rating in this preview is on CARNAGE. The series shape is on RANGE. Our number against the live price on every game is on MARKET, and the current five for both teams is on LINEUPS.

Where to trade this

Both semifinals are listed on Polymarket, with the series, map one, map handicaps and total maps. Polymarket: new users get $50 on a $10 deposit with code SKILL.

Win probabilities are approximate and subject to change. Good luck!