B8 vs Luminosity Prediction and Picks: Play Connect Semifinal, Tuesday 9:00 AM ET
Logitech G Play Connect semifinals, LAN in Poland. Prices are approximate and were taken Monday morning ET.
Editor's note: prices on these games move right up to lock. The WIRE logs every move as it happens, so if you are reading this the morning of, check it before you act on anything below.
The game
B8 and Luminosity open the Logitech G Play Connect semifinals at 9:00 AM ET, best of three. They have already met here: B8 won the Group A game 13-11 on Dust2, then topped the group for a bye to this round. Luminosity came the long way, through a 2-0 over BBL in the quarterfinal.
The market has B8 at 65 cents and Luminosity at 36. We make B8 59.5 percent, approximately, which leaves Luminosity at 40.5 against a 36 cent price. That is a 4.5 point gap on the underdog, just short of the five points the WIRE uses to call an edge. Worth knowing before you pay 65 for B8. Not quite enough on its own to take the other side.
How the series is likely to go
B8 2-0 is the single most likely result at 32 percent, with a B8 2-1 at 28. Luminosity win it 2-1 about 22 percent of the time and 2-0 about 19. A third map comes up 49 percent of the time, close to a coin flip, and B8 take map one about 56 percent of the time.
Map prices
B8 -1.5 is priced at 36 cents against our 31.8 percent, so the market is ahead of us on the sweep. Luminosity +1.5 is 65 cents against our 68.2, a three point gap in Luminosity's favor on taking at least one map. Total maps is 50 cents for three maps, level with our 49.2, so there is nothing there.
Players
npl is the highest-rated player in this game at 90, and he calls for B8 as well. He is our most likely top fragger here at about 27 percent, a little better than one in four. s1zzi holds the AWP at 87 and is next at about 15 percent. kensizor (83), esenthial (81) and alex666 (78) fill out the five.
Luminosity's top two are level: afro on the AWP and yxngstxr on a rifle, both rated 85 and both about 13 percent to top the game. yxngstxr joined in late August in place of Bymas. Rainwaker (83) and AZUWU (80) follow, with lux (74) calling.
The read
B8 are the right favorite, and the price is a few points rich on them. What value there is sits with Luminosity: 4.5 points on the series and about three on +1.5. Both are short of the five-point bar, so this is a game to watch the price into lock rather than one to act on now.
The numbers behind this
Every rating in this preview is on CARNAGE. The series shape is on RANGE. Our number against the live price on every game is on MARKET, and the current five for both teams is on LINEUPS.
Where to trade this
Both semifinals are listed on Polymarket, with the series, map one, map handicaps and total maps. Polymarket: new users get $50 on a $10 deposit with code SKILL.
Win probabilities are approximate and subject to change. Good luck!