Luminosity vs 3DMAX Prediction and Picks: Play Connect Grand Final, Wednesday 12:00 PM ET

Editor's note: prices move right up to lock. The WIRE logs every move as it happens, so check it before you act on anything below.

The game

Luminosity and 3DMAX meet for the Logitech G Play Connect title at 12:00 PM ET, best of five. Luminosity came through B8, 3DMAX came through Inner Circle.

The market has Luminosity at 57 cents and 3DMAX at 43. We make it much closer: Luminosity 51.8 percent, which puts 3DMAX at 48.2 against a 43 cent price. That is a 5.2-point gap on the underdog, our bar for flagging a game.

How the series is likely to go

No single result clears 20 percent, which is what a coin-flip final looks like. Luminosity 3-1 is the most likely at 19.5 percent, with Luminosity 3-2 at 19.1, 3DMAX 3-2 at 18.4 and 3DMAX 3-1 at 18.0. The sweeps sit at the bottom: Luminosity 3-0 at 13.2, 3DMAX 3-0 at 11.8. A fifth map lands 37.5 percent of the time.

Map markets

Luminosity -1.5 maps needs a 3-0 or a 3-1, which we have at 32.7 percent against a 41 cent price, so the market is well ahead of us on the favorite covering. The other side of that, 3DMAX +1.5 at 62 cents against our 67.3, is the same disagreement from the other direction. Map one is priced at 56 for Luminosity; we have it at 50.9, close to a coin flip.

Players

Maka is our highest-rated player in the final at 89, and he calls for 3DMAX while holding the AWP, a double role few teams at this level run. He is also our most likely top fragger at about 24 percent. Kursy at 87 is the rifle that we’d be most interested in for DFS pick’em purposes.

Luminosity answer with afro at 87 on the AWP and Rainwaker at 85, with yxngstxr at 84 behind them.

The read

The price says Luminosity are a clear favorite, but to us, the value is more on the 3DMAX side at time of writing. They have more experience on stage and in high-pressure LAN events than the crowd seems to be giving them credit for.

The numbers behind this

Every rating in this preview is on CARNAGE. The series shape is on RANGE. Our number against the live price on each game we rate is on MARKET, and the current five for both teams is on LINEUPS.

Where to trade this

The final is listed on Polymarket with the series, map one, map handicaps and total maps. Polymarket: new users get $50 on a $10 deposit with code SKILL.

Nothing above is a recommendation. 18+ only. Trading is risky and 100% loss can occur. Offers have limits and are not available in all jurisdictions.

Win probabilities are approximate and subject to change. Good luck!