Which NBA players lead their game in points most often?
Updated Nov 6, 2026. All prices as of 1:19 PM ET on Nov 6.
Through Nov 6, Tyrese Maxey and Luka Dončić have led their game in points far more often than Kalshi’s prices expected: Maxey 6 times in 8 games, against prices that added up to 2.1, and Dončić 7 times in 8, against 4.0. Tonight’s price for every game is on the NBA points leader board.
Small sample: the record covers 123 games, counting players with 3 or more. Gaps this early in a season usually shrink as games add up.
What a points leader price means
Kalshi lists a market on each NBA game for which player scores the most points in it. A price of 37¢ means about a 37% chance, and a Yes pays $1 if he finishes as the game’s top scorer. Ties settle by each market’s rules on Kalshi.
Add up a player’s prices across the games he has played and you get how many of them the market expected him to lead. That is the “priced for” number below; “led” is how many he actually led. The gap between the two is his record against the market.
Players furthest ahead of their prices
Season record through Nov 6, players with 3 or more games, sorted by how far they beat their prices:
Tyrese Maxey, 76ers: led 6 of 8, priced for 2.1 (+3.9)
Luka Dončić, Lakers: led 7 of 8, priced for 4.0 (+3.0)
Darius Acuff Jr., Kings: led 4 of 7, priced for 1.4 (+2.6)
Alperen Sengun, Rockets: led 3 of 6, priced for 0.5 (+2.5)
Scottie Barnes, Raptors: led 3 of 5, priced for 0.6 (+2.4)
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs: led 5 of 8, priced for 3.3 (+1.7)
Maxey and Dončić get there in different ways. Dončić’s prices averaged about 50¢ a game (4.0 over 8), and he still led almost every night. Maxey’s averaged about 26¢ (2.1 over 8), because he shares the 76ers’ scoring with Joel Embiid, so each game he leads counts for more against his prices.
Who trails his prices
Among the 15 players with the highest prices tonight, Donovan Mitchell trails furthest: he has led none of his games against prices that added up to 1.6, and he is 20¢ against the 76ers tonight. RJ Barrett has led none against 0.8, and Cooper Flagg once against 1.5.
Tonight’s points leader prices (Nov 6)
The six highest prices on Friday’s nine-game slate, as of 1:19 PM ET:
Luka Dončić, Lakers vs Trail Blazers: 89¢
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder vs Grizzlies: 77¢
Jayson Tatum, Celtics vs Hornets: 58¢
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs vs Kings: 57¢
Cooper Flagg, Mavericks vs Jazz: 49¢
LaMelo Ball, Timberwolves vs Pelicans: 41¢
Dončić’s 89¢ is the highest on the slate. He holds 38% of the points Kalshi’s player markets list for the Lakers’ players, the biggest share of any player on Friday’s slate (NBA usage page, 8:33 AM ET). Points leader prices move with lineup news, so the board closest to tip is the one that counts.
Where this fits
A points leader price sits next to each player’s points number in Kalshi’s player markets. How Kalshi NBA player props work covers reading those numbers, and NBA usage rate explains why one player carries most of a team’s shots. Every game tonight has its own preview on NBA predictions.
FAQ
What does a 37¢ points leader price mean?
About a 37% chance that he scores the most points in his game. A Yes pays $1 if he does.
How many games is this record based on?
123 NBA games through Nov 6, 2026, for players with 3 or more games in the record. All 231 players are on the NBA points leader board, game by game.
Why is there no first basket market anymore?
The NBA’s October 2026 agreement with Kalshi and Polymarket bars markets on single plays, such as the first basket or the opening tip. The points leader market covers the whole game instead.
Is this a prediction?
No. It shows what Kalshi’s prices said before each game and what happened. A player beating his prices over 8 games is a record, not a forecast, and nothing here says what to buy.