Four NHL games on Wednesday, Nov 4. The Panthers are the biggest favorite at 69¢; Senators at Sabres is the closest game. Below: who each market favors, where Kalshi and Polymarket differ, and how each team has done against its pre-game prices this season. Prices as of 8:29 AM ET; they move until puck drop, often on starting-goalie news.
Tonight at a glance
Biggest favorite: the Panthers, 71¢ on Polymarket, against a Blackhawks team ranked 30th of 32 in our NHL power rankings.
Closest game: Senators at Sabres, with the Sabres 54¢ on Polymarket. The two teams are rated 51 and 52.
Biggest move since yesterday: the Sabres, 56¢ to 53¢, even though they have won 3 straight.
Beating their prices: the Kraken (1.9 wins above; only the Oilers and Bruins are further ahead) and the Flames (5-2 over the last 14 days, 2.3 wins above, the best in the NHL in that span). They play each other at 10 PM.
Falling short of their prices: the Kings, 4-8 and 1.6 wins below, yet the only favorite tonight whose price has risen since yesterday (58¢ to 60¢).
Every game, by start time
Blackhawks at Panthers, 7:30 PM ET
The Panthers are favored: 69¢ on Kalshi, 71¢ on Polymarket. Against what prices expected this season: Blackhawks 4-10, 1.3 wins below; Panthers 7-7, 1.0 wins below. Market ratings: the Blackhawks 40 (30th of 32), the Panthers 53 (12th). Last five: Blackhawks 1-4, Panthers 3-2.
What stands out: the Panthers have played one of the easiest schedules in the NHL so far (opponents average a 46 market rating) and are still 1.0 wins below their prices. The Blackhawks are 1-5 over the last 14 days and play the Lightning on Thursday, so tonight is the first half of a back-to-back.
Senators at Sabres, 7:30 PM ET
The Sabres are favored: 55¢ on Kalshi, 54¢ on Polymarket. Against what prices expected this season: Senators 9-7, 0.6 wins above; Sabres 7-7, 0.2 wins below. Market ratings: the Senators 51 (15th of 32), the Sabres 52 (13th). Last five: Senators 2-3, Sabres 3-2.
What stands out: the Sabres have won 3 straight, but their price has dropped from 56¢ yesterday to 53¢. This was also the most traded NHL game on Kalshi over the last 24 hours (15,000 contracts). The Senators are above their prices for the season but 3-4 over the last 14 days, 0.6 wins below.
Flames at Kraken, 10:00 PM ET
The Kraken are favored: 55¢ on Kalshi, 56¢ on Polymarket. Against what prices expected this season: Flames 7-8, 1.1 wins above; Kraken 8-6, 1.9 wins above. Market ratings: the Flames 38 (31st of 32), the Kraken 42 (29th). Last five: Flames 3-2, Kraken 3-2.
What stands out: the market rates both teams near the bottom of the league (Kraken 29th, Flames 31st), yet both have won more than their prices expected. The Flames are 5-2 over the last 14 days, 2.3 wins above, the best in the NHL in that span. The Kraken price has slipped from 58¢ to 56¢ since yesterday.
Sharks at Kings, 10:00 PM ET
The Kings are favored: 59¢ on Kalshi, 60¢ on Polymarket. Against what prices expected this season: Sharks 7-9, 0.2 wins below; Kings 4-8, 1.6 wins below. Market ratings: the Sharks 44 (28th of 32), the Kings 47 (21st). Last five: Sharks 1-4, Kings 2-3.
What stands out: the Kings are 4-8 and 1.6 wins below their prices this season, yet theirs is the only favorite price that has risen since yesterday, from 58¢ to 60¢. The Sharks are 2-4 over the last 14 days, 0.9 wins below.
How to use these prices
Check both apps. The same team often trades 1 or 2¢ apart: the Panthers are 69¢ on Kalshi and 71¢ on Polymarket. More on Kalshi vs Polymarket.
Recheck before puck drop. Prices here are as of 8:29 AM ET, and late moves often follow starting-goalie news. NHL WIRE charts every game live and logs every 3¢ move.
Look past the record. A team’s record against its pre-game prices shows whether the market has been too high or too low on it. Full table on Expected, ratings adjusted for opponents on NHL power rankings, and our latest notes on Radar.
Favorites lose often. Underdogs have won 53 of 156 NHL games with a clear favorite this season (34%).
How to read these prices
A price in cents is the market’s chance: 60¢ means about a 60% chance to win. Even a 60¢ favorite loses about four games in ten. Prices cover overtime and shootouts, so every game has a winner.
New to prediction markets? Start with how NHL prediction markets work, then compare the apps and their offers on best prediction market apps.
Questions
Who is favored in the NHL today?
The Panthers are the biggest favorite at 69¢ on Kalshi against the Blackhawks. Senators at Sabres is the closest game.
Which NHL teams are beating their prices?
Of tonight’s teams, the Kraken (8-6, 1.9 wins above) and the Flames (7-8, 1.1 wins above) have won more than their pre-game prices expected this season. The Kings (4-8, 1.6 wins below) and the Blackhawks (4-10, 1.3 wins below) have fallen furthest short.
What was the biggest price move since yesterday?
The Sabres, from 56¢ to 53¢ before tonight’s game against the Senators.
Where do these prices come from?
Kalshi and Polymarket, read at 8:29 AM ET. Both are prediction markets where a share pays $1 if the team wins, so the price is the market’s chance. Records against prices and market ratings use results through Nov 3.