Cavaliers vs Thunder prediction: the Thunder are 56¢ on Polymarket and 54¢ on Kalshi (Tue 4:40 PM ET), down 13¢ from their 69¢ open, two days after beating the Cavaliers 117-112 in Cleveland. Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace are all listed as out for Oklahoma City. Tip is Wednesday, November 4, at 8:00 PM ET.
Cavaliers and Thunder this season
Thunder: 5-2 against 4.3 expected wins, 0.7 above (11th-most of 30 teams), 7th-toughest schedule; 1-5 on overs, avg total 227.3 (Expected, season to Nov 3)
Cavaliers: 4-3 against 4.4 expected wins, 0.4 below, 9th-easiest schedule; 3-3 on overs, avg total 234.3 (Expected, season to Nov 3)
Price: Thunder 56¢, Cavaliers 44¢ (Polymarket, as of Tue 4:40 PM ET)
Kalshi: Thunder 54¢, Cavaliers 46¢
Game total: 228.5 points (over 49¢, under 51¢)
2027 title price: Cavaliers 3¢, Thunder 16¢ (Polymarket US)
Live price and every move: NBA WIRE
Cavaliers vs Thunder prediction: what the price says
The Thunder are favored at 56¢, with the Cavaliers at 44¢. Kalshi has the Thunder 2¢ cheaper at 54¢. NBA MARKET keeps Polymarket and Kalshi side by side for this game. That is down 13¢ from the Thunder’s opening price of 69¢. The team favored at tip is 74-33 in our logged games, so upsets have come about 31% of the time. Only about $4,500 had traded on Polymarket as of Tue 4:28 PM ET, so a single trade can move this price.
How they come in
How each team has played this week, with Polymarket’s price before tip.
The Cavaliers are 1-1 this week: a 136-111 win at the Bucks on Saturday as 76¢ favorites and a 117-112 home loss to the Thunder on Monday as 61¢ favorites. Both went over the total. On the market they rate 62, 6th of 30, and they are 4-3 against 4.4 expected wins. Their next two opponents rate 64 on average, a tougher run than most.
The Thunder are 1-1 this week: a 119-98 loss at the Rockets on Saturday as 44¢ underdogs and a 117-112 win at the Cavaliers on Monday as 39¢ underdogs. One of the two went over the total. One of the wins came as underdogs. On the market they rate 67, 2nd of 30, and they are 5-2 against 4.3 expected wins. Their next two opponents rate 51 on average, about an average run.
Cavaliers vs Thunder injury report
As of Nov 3, from our injury list; neither team had filed its official Wednesday report as of 4:30 PM ET Tuesday. Expect updates before tip.
Jalen Williams (Thunder): listed as out, leg
Chet Holmgren (Thunder): listed as out, knee
Cason Wallace (Thunder): listed as out, shoulder
Alex Caruso (Thunder): listed as out, ankle
Thomas Sorber (Thunder): listed as out, knee
Nikola Topic (Thunder): listed as out, back
The rotations, by last season’s numbers
2025-26 regular-season numbers on today’s rosters. Usage measures how many possessions a player finishes while he’s on the court.
Cavaliers
Donovan Mitchell: 33.5 min, 32.2% usage, 27.9 pts, 4.5 reb, 5.7 ast
James Harden: 33.8 min, 24.0% usage, 20.5 pts, 4.8 reb, 7.7 ast
Evan Mobley: 31.9 min, 22.5% usage, 18.2 pts, 9.0 reb, 3.6 ast
Peyton Watson: 29.6 min, 20.6% usage, 14.6 pts, 4.9 reb, 2.1 ast (new, was DEN)
Jarrett Allen: 27.1 min, 19.9% usage, 15.4 pts, 8.5 reb, 1.8 ast
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 33.2 min, 33.3% usage, 31.1 pts, 4.3 reb, 6.6 ast
Ajay Mitchell: 25.8 min, 21.8% usage, 13.6 pts, 3.3 reb, 3.6 ast
Isaiah Hartenstein: 24.2 min, 16.1% usage, 9.2 pts, 9.4 reb, 3.5 ast
Jared McCain: 18.0 min, 23.2% usage, 10.4 pts, 2.1 reb, 0.9 ast
Jaylin Williams: 19.7 min, 15.5% usage, 7.2 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.4 ast
Listed as out: Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams.
Questions about Cavaliers vs Thunder
Is Donovan Mitchell playing Wednesday?
Donovan Mitchell was not on our injury list as of Tue 4:40 PM ET, and the official Wednesday report was not yet filed. The game-day report, due 5 p.m. local the night before and updated through the day, is the final word.
Is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing Wednesday?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was not on our injury list as of Tue 4:40 PM ET, and the official Wednesday report was not yet filed. If that changes, the Thunder report will say so before tip, and Gilgeous-Alexander’s 33.3% usage would have to go somewhere.
Who is favored in Cavaliers vs Thunder?
The Thunder, at 56¢ on Polymarket and 54¢ on Kalshi (Tue 4:40 PM ET), so a win on them pays less per contract than the Cavaliers. Both prices sit at the top of this page and update live on NBA WIRE.
When and where is Cavaliers vs Thunder?
Wednesday, November 4, at 8:00 PM ET, in Oklahoma City.
For Wednesday’s other games, see NBA predictions; today’s board covers every sport.