Which Premier League clubs are beating their prices?

Updated Nov 4, 2026. All prices as of 1:05 PM ET on Nov 4.

Brighton (5-1-2) are the Premier League club furthest ahead of their prices this season: 16 points against the 11.0 that Kalshi’s pre-match prices expected, 5.0 above, as of Nov 4. Arsenal are next at 4.8 above, and Manchester United (7 points against 12.5 expected) have fallen furthest short, 5.5 below. Every number here comes from Expected, which updates after each settled match.

Small sample: 79 matches have settled, so most clubs have played 8 (Man City and Crystal Palace 7). Gaps this early usually shrink as matches add up.

How points vs expected works

Before every match, Kalshi lists three prices: a home win, a draw and an away win. A 60¢ price means about a 60% chance. Expected takes the last prices the day before kickoff and turns them into points: three times the win price plus the draw price, so 60¢ to win and 25¢ to draw is 2.05 expected points. Add that up across a club’s matches and compare it with the points it actually took. Above zero, the club has done better than its prices said; below zero, worse.

The number is built from prices, not shot data, so it answers one question: whether a club has taken more or fewer points than the market gave it before each match. Draws matter more here than in the NBA or NFL: 24 of the 79 settled matches have been drawn, about 30%. Our guide to Premier League draw prices explains how that third price is set.

The schedule rank beside each club below (1st is the toughest of 20) comes from its opponents’ average pre-match win price, so it shows whether a gap came against strong or weak sides.

Clubs furthest ahead of their prices

  • Brighton: 5-1-2, 16 points against 11.0 expected, +5.0, 2nd-toughest schedule

  • Arsenal: 7-0-1, 21 against 16.2, +4.8, 13th-toughest

  • Aston Villa: 3-3-2, 12 against 10.1, +1.9, toughest in the league

  • Bournemouth: 3-3-2, 12 against 10.7, +1.3, 5th-toughest

  • Coventry City: 3-0-5, 9 against 8.1, +0.9, 12th-toughest

  • Hull City: 1-5-2, 8 against 7.1, +0.9, 16th-toughest

Brighton’s lead came against the 2nd-toughest schedule, so it is not a soft-fixture story. Arsenal top the table on 21 points and still sit 4.8 above, even though their prices already added up to 16.2 points, the most of any club. Aston Villa have faced the toughest set of opponents and are 1.9 ahead. Hull and Coventry, the two highest relegation prices on Kalshi, have each taken 0.9 more points than expected.

Clubs furthest behind their prices

  • Man United: 1-4-3, 7 points against 12.5 expected, -5.5, 9th-toughest schedule

  • Nottingham Forest: 1-3-4, 6 against 10.1, -4.1, 11th-toughest

  • Sunderland: 1-2-5, 5 against 8.3, -3.3, 3rd-toughest

  • Leeds: 1-5-2, 8 against 10.4, -2.4, 7th-toughest

  • Newcastle: 3-1-4, 10 against 12.2, -2.2, 19th-toughest

Manchester United’s gap is the largest in the league in either direction: their prices added up to 12.5 points, fifth-most of any club, and they have 7. Newcastle’s shortfall came against the 19th-toughest schedule, the second-easiest so far. Leeds have lost only twice and still sit 2.4 below: five of their eight matches were draws, tied with Hull and Brentford for the most in the league.

Where the table and the prices disagree

Man City are 3rd on 15 points and close to their prices (+0.5), yet carry a relegation price of 35¢ on Kalshi (1:04 PM ET, Nov 4). That price reflects the chance of a points deduction from the Premier League’s financial charges, not their results. Expected measures results only, so the charges don’t show up in it. EPL Table puts every club’s title, top four and relegation prices next to the standings.

Where to look before the next round

Points vs expected is a record, not a forecast. For this weekend’s matches, EPL Market lists Kalshi and Polymarket home, draw and away prices side by side, EPL WIRE charts every price move live, and EPL power rankings rate all 20 clubs by their average pre-match price.

FAQ

Which Premier League club is beating expectations by the most?

Brighton, with 16 points from 8 matches against the 11.0 that Kalshi’s pre-match prices expected: 5.0 above, as of Nov 4. Arsenal are second at 4.8 above.

Which Premier League club is furthest below expectations?

Manchester United: 7 points from 8 matches against 12.5 expected, 5.5 below, as of Nov 4. Nottingham Forest are next at 4.1 below.

Which Premier League clubs are most likely to be relegated?

On Kalshi’s relegation board at 1:04 PM ET on Nov 4, Hull City were highest at 56¢ (about a 56% chance), then Coventry City at 51¢ and Sunderland at 40¢. EPL Futures shows the full board on Kalshi and Polymarket.

What does 5.0 points above expected mean?

The club has taken five more points than its pre-match prices added up to. Brighton’s prices across eight matches were worth 11.0 points; they took 16, close to two extra wins.

Which prices does Expected use?

The last Kalshi prices the day before each match, for the home win, the draw and the away win. Results come from Kalshi’s settled match markets.

How often is this page updated?

Every week during the season; the date at the top shows the last refresh. Expected itself updates once Kalshi settles each match, usually within a couple of hours of full time.