Which CS2 teams are beating their prices?

Updated Nov 5, 2026. All numbers as of 1:25 PM ET on Nov 5.

The MongolZ are the CS2 team furthest ahead of their prices over the last 30 days: 10-4 against the 6.4 wins that Kalshi’s pre-series prices expected, 3.6 above, as of Nov 5. Imperial (+3.3) and BetBoom (+3.1) are next, and Legacy (2-8 against 5.9 expected) have fallen furthest short, 3.9 below. Every number here comes from Expected, which updates as series settle.

Small sample: 51 rated teams appear in the 30-day window, most with 10 to 18 series. A gap of 2 wins over 14 series can close in one bad week, so read these as recent form, not a forecast.

How wins vs expected works

Before every series, Kalshi lists a price for each team to win. A 62¢ price means about a 62% chance. Expected takes the last price the day before the series (or the first price on match day, when a market opens late) and adds them up: 70¢ in one series and 40¢ in the next is 1.1 expected wins. Compare that with the series a team actually won. Above zero, it has done better than its prices said; below zero, worse.

The schedule rank beside each team below (1st is the toughest of 51) comes from its opponents’ average pre-series price, so it shows whether a gap came against strong or weak sides.

Teams furthest ahead of their prices

  • The MongolZ: 10-4, 6.4 expected, +3.6, 13th-toughest schedule

  • Imperial: 13-2, 9.7 expected, +3.3, 42nd-toughest

  • BetBoom: 9-5, 5.9 expected, +3.1, 16th-toughest

  • Eternal Fire: 10-4, 7.2 expected, +2.8, 9th-toughest

  • Wildcard: 8-2, 5.7 expected, +2.3, 8th-toughest

  • MOUZ: 10-3, 8.1 expected, +1.9, 12th-toughest

Imperial’s 13-2 came against the 42nd-toughest schedule, one of the softest in the window, so much of their gap is about who they played. BetBoom, The MongolZ and Eternal Fire did it against top-20 schedules. BetBoom also lead the 90-day view: 10-7 and 2.7 wins above their prices, the most of the 18 teams on CS2 power rankings (results through Nov 4).

Teams furthest behind their prices

  • Legacy: 2-8, 5.9 expected, -3.9, 47th-toughest schedule

  • Spirit: 4-6, 7.2 expected, -3.2, 35th-toughest

  • G2: 0-6, 3.0 expected, -3.0, 26th-toughest

  • SAW: 5-5, 7.1 expected, -2.1, 51st-toughest

  • 9z: 2-8, 3.7 expected, -1.7, 25th-toughest

Spirit show the widest split between rating and results. They are 2nd on CS2 power rankings at a 71 rating, because the market still prices them as one of the best teams, yet they are 4-6 over 30 days and 6-7, 3.6 below their prices, over 90. G2 have not won a series in the window: 0-6 against prices that added up to 3 wins. SAW’s shortfall came against the easiest schedule of the 51.

Where the top teams sit

Vitality, 1st on CS2 power rankings at 74, are 7-3 over 30 days and 0.5 wins below their prices: when the market already has a team at 70¢ or more in most series, beating it takes a near-perfect run. FURIA are 13-5, 1.7 above, and Natus Vincere 7-6, 0.3 above, against the 2nd-toughest schedule in the window.

Where to look before the next series

Wins vs expected is a record, not a forecast. For the next series, CS2 Market lists Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side, CS2 WIRE charts every price move live, and CS2 lineups tracks the roster changes that often explain a gap. Our guide to CS2 tier 1 events explains which events carry the most weight.

FAQ

Which CS2 team is beating expectations by the most?

The MongolZ, 3.6 wins above their Kalshi prices over the last 30 days (10-4 against 6.4 expected), as of Nov 5, 2026. Imperial are next at 3.3 above.

Which CS2 team is furthest below expectations?

Legacy, 3.9 wins below: 2-8 over 30 days against prices that added up to 5.9 wins. Spirit are next at 3.2 below.

What does 3.6 wins above expected mean?

The team’s pre-series prices added up to 6.4 wins and it won 10. The extra 3.6 is how far its results have run ahead of what the market priced in.

Which prices does Expected use?

Kalshi’s settled series markets: the last price the day before each series, or the first price on match day when a market opens late. The 90-day view covers 1,374 series.

How often is this page updated?

Weekly. The live table on Expected updates within a couple of hours of each settled series.