PGL Astana 2026 Opening Day Cheat sheet

Saturday, May 9 will open PGL Astana 2026 with eight BO3 matches across four time slots. We also have IEM Atlanta starting up, and that one features a lot of the top teams in the world too. It should be a busy week.

Sixteen teams at PGL Astanta, no Vitality in the field, and a mix of heavy favorites and closer matchups. Times below are ET.

THE GAMES

Let’s dive right in. Percentages are approximate win probabilities based on available odds.

Aurora vs HEROIC, 1:00 AM ET

Closest matchup of the day. Aurora are the favorite at 61.5%, HEROIC at 38.5%. Both teams have firepower and experience, and I actually think HEROIC has a decent shot at the upset.

Pick: HEROIC > Aurora 2-1
Top Projection: XANTARES

G2 vs Fisher College, 1:00 AM ET

G2 are heavy favorites at 94.5%. Fisher College had a great run to qualify, but the gulf in talent should be overwhelming here.

Pick: G2 > Fisher College 2-0
Top Projection: MATYS

MongolZ vs magic, 4:00 AM ET

MongolZ at 79% reflects their consistent top-tier results in 2026. Magic are the underdog at 21% and it’s hard to imagine them doing much.

Pick: MongolZ > magic 2-0
Top Projection: 910

MOUZ vs Gentle Mates, 4:00 AM ET

MOUZ will debut the new starting five with xelex and JL stepping in and xertioN moving over to IGL. Gentle Mates can pop here and there but enter at a low 28.9% chance to win.

Pick: MOUZ > Gentle Mates 2-0
Top Projection: Spinx

Falcons vs K27, 7:00 AM ET

Falcons heavy favorites at 90.7% in the debut of karrigan as the new in-game leader. The skill and experience are firmly in Falcons’ favor.

Pick: Falcons > K27 2-0
Top Projection: m0NESY

Spirit vs The Huns, 7:00 AM ET

Spirit are the steepest favorite on the slate at 91.6%. Tough to see any path for Huns staying competitive against donk and the rest of Spirit.

Pick: Spirit > The Huns 2-0
Top Projection: donk

FURIA vs Monte, 10:00 AM ET

FURIA favored at 65.9%. Monte at 34.1%. This game could be closer than most assume given the ranking gap. FURIA has not been playing their best CS, while Monte has been surging.

Pick: FURIA > Monte 2-1
Top Projection: KSCERATO

PARIVISION vs 9z Team, 10:00 AM ET

PARIVISION are a lot more dangerous than 9z, and I’m expecting Jame and company to wrap up this series in straightforward fashion.

Pick: PARIVSIION > 9z 2-0
Top Projection: zweih

NOTES

Vitality is not attending Astana and will be at IEM Atlanta instead. The world number one team being absent opens the opportunity for a rare tournament trophy, with Falcons and Spirit among those with the clearest route to the win.

Win probabilities are approximate and subject to change. Always check current numbers before locking decisions.

For player-level ratings check CARNAGE over the coming days. For game-level fair values see MARKET.