FURIA are 14-4 over the last 30 days, 2.7 wins above what their prices expected. Falcons are 6-5 and 1.1 wins below, yet the market has this BLAST Rivals series close to even (Saturday 5:30 AM ET, best of three).
Price: FURIA 52¢, Falcons 48¢ (as of Fri 2:35 PM ET)
Kalshi: FURIA 51¢, Falcons 49¢
Top rated: molodoy (FURIA), m0NESY (Falcons)
FURIA vs Falcons prediction: reading the price
FURIA are only just favored at 52¢, close to a coin flip. Kalshi lists FURIA at 51¢, about 53¢ once its trading fee is added, against 52¢ on Polymarket.
Both prices sit side by side on CS2 MARKET.
The fives
FalleN calls for FURIA, with molodoy on the AWP and KSCERATO, YEKINDAR and yuurih on rifles.
Falcons are kyousuke, NiKo and TeSeS on rifles, m0NESY on the AWP and karrigan calling. Every top team's five, with roles, is on LINEUPS.
How they’ve done against expectations
Market ratings: FURIA 62 (5th of 19), Falcons 63 (4th) on CS2 power rankings, built from what traders paid before each series at top events.
FURIA: 23–13 in all series over the last 90 days (power rankings count top events only), 1.6 wins above the 21.4 their pre-game prices expected. That run includes a win over Vitality as a 30¢ underdog on Wednesday (Nov 11).
Falcons: 11–9 in all series over the last 90 days (power rankings count top events only), 1.1 wins below the 12.1 their pre-game prices expected. They reached this series by beating G2 on Friday morning, after G2 took map 1 and rose to 65¢ on Kalshi (7:02 AM ET).
Title market: FURIA 23¢ and Falcons 22¢ to win BLAST Rivals Hong Kong on Polymarket. Every contender: CS2 futures.
Only series that settled on Kalshi count, so these records can differ from event totals. All teams: CS2 Expected.
Names to know
m0NESY (Falcons’s AWPer): One of the highest-rated players in our ratings, and Falcons’s highest-upside option.
Watch KSCERATO, FURIA’s rifler: Consistent rifler who shows up in the big moments.
molodoy vs m0NESY: two of the best AWPers in CS; this is a great battle.
Map by map
Map 1: FURIA 48¢, Falcons 52¢
FURIA 2-0 (−1.5 maps): 28¢
Three maps (over 2.5): 49¢
Of FURIA’s 52¢ to win, 28¢ is a 2-0 and 24¢ a 2-1, so slightly more of it rides on a sweep. FURIA are 52¢ for the series but 48¢ on map 1, so the market trusts them more over a full series than on any single map.
Questions about FURIA vs Falcons
Who is favored in FURIA vs Falcons?
FURIA, at 52¢ on Polymarket against 48¢ for Falcons; Kalshi has FURIA at 51¢.
When does FURIA vs Falcons start?
Saturday, November 14, at 5:30 AM ET, best of three.
Prices move, and this is not advice.
Polymarket lists the most CS2 series: $25 on a $10 deposit, code SKILL. Claim it here.
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