The Thunder are 78¢ on Polymarket at home, 6-2 and 1.2 wins above what prices expected, even with Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace out on Friday’s injury report; the Wizards are 4-4 and without Tristan Vukcevic. This Wizards vs Thunder prediction preview covers the price, both rotations and the injury windows for Saturday, November 7, 8:00 PM ET. Every game is on NBA predictions.
What the numbers say right now
Wizards: 4-4, 0.4 wins above what Kalshi's prices expected (3.6) against the 25th-toughest schedule so far (Expected, season through Nov 5)
Thunder: 6-2, 1.2 wins above what Kalshi's prices expected (4.8) against the 7th-toughest schedule so far (Expected, season through Nov 5)
Thunder: with Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace out, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander holds 32% of the points Kalshi's player markets list for the Thunder's players (NBA USAGE, Nov 6 8:33 AM)
Wizards: only 5 Wizards listed on Kalshi; Anthony Davis (Q, ankle) leads at 21.5 points, then Young 19.5 and Dybantsa 17.5 (NBA USAGE, Nov 6 8:33 AM)
Price: Thunder 78¢, Wizards 22¢ (Polymarket, as of Fri 6:06 PM ET)
Kalshi: Thunder 77¢, Wizards 23¢
2027 title price: Wizards 1¢, Thunder 15¢ (Polymarket US)
Live price and every move: NBA WIRE
Wizards vs Thunder prediction: what the price says
At 78¢, the Thunder are clear favorites; the Wizards are 22¢. Kalshi has the Thunder 1¢ cheaper at 77¢. NBA MARKET shows which app is cheaper for every game tonight. The team favored at tip is 86-37 in our logged games, so upsets have come about 30% of the time.
How they come in
The last few games for both teams, with the price going in.
The Wizards are 1-1 this week: a 103-94 win at the Magic on Monday as 42¢ underdogs and a 120-105 home loss to the Hawks on Wednesday as 44¢ underdogs. Both went under the total. One of the wins came as underdogs. On the market they rate 41, 23rd of 30, and they are 4-4 against 3.6 expected wins. Their next three opponents rate 59 on average, a tougher run than most.
The Thunder are 2-1 this week: a 119-98 loss at the Rockets on Saturday as 44¢ underdogs, a 117-112 win at the Cavaliers on Monday as 39¢ underdogs and a 124-116 home win over the Cavaliers on Wednesday as 60¢ favorites. Two of the three went over the total. One of the wins came as underdogs. On the market they rate 67, 2nd of 30, and they are 6-2 against 4.8 expected wins. Their next three opponents rate 48 on average, about an average run.
Injury report: Wizards vs Thunder
As of Nov 6. Expect updates before tip.
Anthony Davis (Wizards): Questionable, ankle
Jaylin Williams (Thunder): Out, back
Jalen Williams (Thunder): Out, leg
Chet Holmgren (Thunder): Out, knee
Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards): Out, hip
Cason Wallace (Thunder): Out, shoulder
Justin Champagnie (Wizards): Out, foot
Jamir Watkins (Wizards): Out, knee
Reece Beekman (Wizards): Out, shoulder
Nikola Topic (Thunder): Out, back
Thomas Sorber (Thunder): Out, knee
Wizards vs Thunder player stats
2025-26 regular-season numbers on today’s rosters. Usage measures how many possessions a player finishes while he’s on the court. The usage shares behind both rotations are on NBA USAGE.
Wizards
Anthony Davis: 31.3 min, 27.5% usage, 20.4 pts, 11.1 reb, 2.8 ast (new, was DAL)
Julian Reese: 30.9 min, 17.7% usage, 11.8 pts, 10.5 reb, 1.8 ast
Kyshawn George: 29.0 min, 22.8% usage, 14.8 pts, 5.1 reb, 4.5 ast
Alexandre Sarr: 27.2 min, 25.7% usage, 16.3 pts, 7.4 reb, 2.7 ast
Leaky Black: 28.9 min, 11.6% usage, 7.1 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.5 ast
Out: Tristan Vukcevic, Justin Champagnie, Jamir Watkins.
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 33.2 min, 33.3% usage, 31.1 pts, 4.3 reb, 6.6 ast
Ajay Mitchell: 25.8 min, 21.8% usage, 13.6 pts, 3.3 reb, 3.6 ast
Isaiah Hartenstein: 24.2 min, 16.1% usage, 9.2 pts, 9.4 reb, 3.5 ast
Jared McCain: 18.0 min, 23.2% usage, 10.4 pts, 2.1 reb, 0.9 ast
Alex Caruso: 18.2 min, 15.7% usage, 6.2 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.0 ast
Out: Jaylin Williams, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams.
Top rookies: AJ Dybantsa, pick 1 (Wizards).
Questions about Wizards vs Thunder
Is Anthony Davis playing on Saturday?
Anthony Davis is listed as questionable (ankle) as of Fri 6:06 PM ET. If that changes, the Wizards report will say so before tip, and Davis’ 27.5% usage would have to go somewhere.
Is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing on Saturday?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was not on the injury report as of Fri 6:06 PM ET. The game-day report, due 5 p.m. local the night before and updated through the day, is the final word.
Who is favored in Wizards vs Thunder?
The Thunder are the shorter side, so a win on them pays less per contract than the Wizards. Both prices sit at the top of this page and update live on NBA WIRE.
When and where is Wizards vs Thunder?
Saturday, November 7, at 8:00 PM ET, in Oklahoma City.
For Saturday’s other games, see NBA predictions; today’s board covers every sport.
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