Heat vs Kings prediction: the Heat are 78¢ on Polymarket and 77¢ on Kalshi for Sunday’s 9:00 PM ET game in Sacramento, up from 71¢ at the open. That price comes despite Miami running 2.0 wins behind what prices expected at 3-6, 2nd-furthest in the NBA; the Kings are 1-8 against the 3rd-toughest schedule.
Heat and Kings this season
Heat: 3-6 against 5.0 expected wins, 2.0 below what prices expected, 2nd-furthest behind in the NBA (Expected, season to Nov 7, read 9:56 AM)
Kings: 1-8 against 2.1 expected wins, 1.1 below what prices expected, against the 3rd-toughest schedule (Expected, season to Nov 7, read 9:56 AM)
Price: Heat 78¢, Kings 22¢ (Polymarket, as of Sat 10:19 AM ET)
Kalshi: Heat 77¢, Kings 23¢
2027 title price: Heat 2¢, Kings 1¢ (Polymarket US)
Live price and every move: NBA WIRE
Heat vs Kings prediction: what the price says
The market leans hard toward the Heat: 78¢ to 22¢. Kalshi has the Heat 1¢ cheaper at 77¢. NBA MARKET shows which app is cheaper for every game tonight. The Heat opened at 71¢, so the price has moved 7¢ toward them since. Underdogs have taken 38 of 132 logged games this season. NBA WIRE logs each move in this market as it happens.
Heat and Kings key players
2025-26 numbers, current rosters. Usage is the share of possessions a player finished with a shot, free throws or a turnover while on the floor.
Heat
Giannis Antetokounmpo: 28.9 min, 37.0% usage, 27.6 pts, 9.8 reb, 5.4 ast (new, was MIL)
Bam Adebayo: 32.4 min, 25.0% usage, 20.1 pts, 10.0 reb, 3.2 ast
Andrew Wiggins: 30.3 min, 19.7% usage, 15.4 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.7 ast
Davion Mitchell: 28.6 min, 13.7% usage, 9.3 pts, 2.7 reb, 6.5 ast
Tim Hardaway Jr.: 26.6 min, 18.5% usage, 13.5 pts, 2.6 reb, 1.4 ast (new, was DEN)
Kings
Keegan Murray: 34.5 min, 18.7% usage, 14.0 pts, 5.7 reb, 1.7 ast
Zach LaVine: 31.4 min, 23.7% usage, 19.2 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.3 ast
Domantas Sabonis: 29.7 min, 23.1% usage, 15.8 pts, 11.4 reb, 4.1 ast
Maxime Raynaud: 26.5 min, 18.2% usage, 12.5 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.4 ast
Daeqwon Plowden: 26.4 min, 16.4% usage, 10.8 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.3 ast
Top rookies: Darius Acuff Jr., pick 7 (Kings).
Last time out
The last few games for both teams, with the price going in.
The Heat are 1-2 this week: a 138-117 loss at the Lakers on Monday as 45¢ underdogs, a 117-116 win at the Clippers on Wednesday as 67¢ favorites and a 120-100 loss at the Warriors on Thursday as 39¢ underdogs. One of the three went over the total. On the market they rate 54, 13th of 30, and they are 3-6 against 5.0 expected wins. Their next two opponents rate 33 on average, an easier run than most.
The Kings are 1-2 this week: a 115-100 win at the Mavericks on Monday as 27¢ underdogs, a 116-103 home loss to the Lakers on Wednesday as 16¢ underdogs and a 124-109 home loss to the Spurs on Friday as 10¢ underdogs. One of the three went over the total. One of the wins came as underdogs. On the market they rate 27, 30th of 30, and they are 1-8 against 2.1 expected wins. Their next two opponents rate 50 on average, about an average run.
Props in those games:
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat): under 29.5 points in all 3; over 11.5 rebounds in all 3
Injury report: Heat vs Kings
As of Nov 8, 7:34 AM ET. Statuses can change right up to tip.
Keegan Murray (Kings): Questionable, ankle
Maxime Raynaud (Kings): Out, knee
Ben Simmons (Kings): Out, achilles
Questions about Heat vs Kings
Is Giannis Antetokounmpo playing on Sunday?
Giannis Antetokounmpo was not on the injury report as of Sat 10:19 AM ET. If that changes, the Heat report will say so before tip, and Antetokounmpo’s 37% usage would have to go somewhere.
Who is favored in Heat vs Kings?
The Heat, at 78¢ on Polymarket to the Kings’ 22¢. NBA MARKET shows whether Kalshi has either side cheaper.
When and where is Heat vs Kings?
Sunday, November 8, at 9:00 PM ET, in Sacramento.
For tonight’s other games, see NBA previews; today’s board covers every sport.