Blast Premier 2026 - My Way-Too-Early Win Probabilities
BLAST Premier Bounty Season 2 runs online from July 21 to 26, followed by a Malta LAN finals from July 30 to August 2. We’ll have 32 teams and a single-elimination bounty format, with eight reaching the LAN finals.
Below is where our model lands right now. Obviously there will be updates to these numbers, as we haven’t even finished the IEM Cologne 2026 major yet!
The Favorites
Vitality lead at about 33 percent. Spirit follow near 23 percent. Both teams are dominant and can win any given tournament.
In the first run of the numbers, Falcons come next around 11 percent, just ahead of FURIA near 9 percent.
Where the Production Is (And Isn’t)
donk (Spirit) is the top projected fragger. He is a generational phenom and carries the highest output upside on the board whenever he’s playing.
ZywOo (Vitality) is right there with donk and is another with one of safest high projections, an elite AWP who also dominates with the rifle.
m0NESY (Falcons) is the clear third for me, he’s an incredible AWPer; Falcons is stacked in general when you add in kyousuke, NiKo and TeSes. karrigan’s individual output has been terrible, but the team has been performing well since his arrival.
More players to target who get volume:
molodoy and KSCERATO (FURIA): dynamic AWP/rifler duo for top-tier team
XANTARES (Aurora): aggressive rifler, one of the highest raw kill rates in the field
910 (The MongolZ): talented AWPer who often carries the Mongolian squad
luchov (9z): a lead rifler and the focal point along with dgt
The in-game leaders like karrigan (Falcons), Snappi (Ninjas in Pyjamas), HooXi (Astralis), and MAJ3R (Aurora) win rounds without the kills. They sacrifice more than other players and often finish with less output as a result.
EARLY Blast Premier Winner odds (GOS model)
Win probability for every team, most to least likely (subject to change, check closer to event for updates).
1) Vitality (32.9% to win)
2) Spirit (23.4% to win)
3) Falcons (10.9% to win)
4) FURIA (8.7% to win)
5) G2 (3.8% to win)
6) Aurora (3.0% to win)
7) The MongolZ (2.2% to win)
8) 9z (2.1% to win)
9) FUT (2.1% to win)
10) MOUZ (1.6% to win)
11) GamerLegion (1.4% to win)
12) Astralis (1.2% to win)
13) FaZe (1.0% to win)
14) paiN (0.9% to win)
15) M80 (0.9% to win)
16) magic (0.5% to win)
17) HEROIC (0.5% to win)
18) Ninjas in Pyjamas (0.5% to win)
19) 3DMAX (0.5% to win)
20) Gentle Mates (0.4% to win)
21) Liquid (0.3% to win)
22) Sharks (0.3% to win)
23) SINNERS (0.2% to win)
24) 100 Thieves (0.2% to win)
25) HOTU (0.1% to win)
26) OG (0.1% to win)
27) EYEBALLERS (0.1% to win)
28) Alliance (0.1% to win)
29) Wildcard (under 0.1% to win)
30) Nemesis (under 0.1% to win)
31) FOKUS (under 0.1% to win)
32) Nuclear TigeRES (under 0.1% to win)
CARNAGE ratings, MARKET edges, and RANGE projections post for every slate once games begin. We will compare our numbers up against the prediction markets as soon as they open.
Win probabilities are approximate and subject to change. Good luck!