Spurs vs Jazz Prediction and Preview: NBA, Oct 28
Update 8:33 PM ET: Lauri Markkanen is out (wrist), with Jaren Jackson Jr. also out. Spurs 86¢ on Polymarket.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is out for the Jazz after tearing the MCL in his right knee, news that broke Tuesday afternoon. In this Spurs vs Jazz prediction, the Spurs are 84¢ on Polymarket and Kalshi, up 8¢ from a 76¢ open, on the second night of a back-to-back after hosting the Kings. Wednesday, October 28: the Spurs are in Utah to play the Jazz at 9:00 PM ET.
Spurs and Jazz this season
Spurs: 1-2, 1.0 win below what prices expected, 14th-toughest schedule (Expected, season to Oct 27)
Jazz: 1-3, 0.9 wins below what prices expected, 11th-toughest schedule (Expected, season to Oct 27)
Price: Spurs 84¢, Jazz 16¢ (Polymarket, as of Tue 9:27 PM ET)
Kalshi: Spurs 84¢, Jazz 17¢
Game total: 234.5 points (over 47¢, under 53¢)
2027 title price: Spurs 21¢, Jazz 1¢ (Polymarket US)
Live price and every move: NBA WIRE
What the price says
The market leans hard toward the Spurs: 84¢ to 16¢. Kalshi is a cent off, at 84¢ and 17¢. For the Kalshi side of this one, NBA MARKET lists both prices. That is up 8¢ from the Spurs’ opening price of 76¢. Favorites at tip have taken 36 of the 52 logged games this season (69%). Wins vs expected has each team’s results against its pre-game price.
Last time out
This week’s results for both teams, with the pre-game Polymarket price. The same Spurs price on both apps, updated through the day, is on NBA MARKET.
The Spurs are 1-1 this week: a 114-110 home loss to the Rockets on Friday as 64¢ favorites and a 122-106 win at the Mavericks on Saturday as 87¢ favorites. Both went under the total. On the market they rate 72, 3rd of 30, and they are 1-2 against 2.0 expected wins. Their next two opponents rate 48 on average, about an average run.
The Jazz are 1-2 this week: a 120-119 home win over the Pelicans on Friday as 51¢ favorites, a 132-123 home loss to the Lakers on Sunday as 31¢ underdogs and a 110-105 home loss to the Grizzlies on Monday as 49¢ underdogs. Two of the three went over the total. On the market they rate 39, 22nd of 30, and they are 1-3 against 1.9 expected wins. Their next two opponents rate 63 on average, a tougher run than most.
How the main players did against their Polymarket props:
Victor Wembanyama (Spurs): under 2.5 assists in both games; over 0.5 threes in both games
Dylan Harper (Spurs): over 17.5 points in both games; under 3.5 assists in both games
Ace Bailey (Jazz): over 1.5 rebounds in all 3; over 0.5 threes in all 3
Isaiah Collier (Jazz): over 4.5 points; over 1.5 assists
Spurs vs Jazz injury report
As of Oct 26. Statuses can change up to tip.
Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz): Out, foot
Lauri Markkanen (Jazz): Out, wrist
Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz): Out, knee
Tobias Harris (Spurs): Out, calf
Spurs and Jazz key players
Numbers from last season, following each player to his current team. Usage is how often a possession ends with him: a shot, free throws or a turnover. Who picks up the shots when a starter sits is on NBA USAGE.
Spurs
Victor Wembanyama: 29.2 min, 32.4% usage, 25.0 pts, 11.5 reb, 3.1 ast
De'Aaron Fox: 31.0 min, 24.9% usage, 18.6 pts, 3.8 reb, 6.2 ast
Stephon Castle: 30.0 min, 24.8% usage, 16.6 pts, 5.3 reb, 7.4 ast
Devin Vassell: 30.5 min, 18.0% usage, 13.9 pts, 4.0 reb, 2.5 ast
Julian Champagnie: 27.6 min, 15.2% usage, 11.1 pts, 5.8 reb, 1.5 ast
Out: Tobias Harris.
Jazz
Lauri Markkanen: 34.3 min, 28.1% usage, 26.7 pts, 6.9 reb, 2.1 ast
Keyonte George: 33.1 min, 27.9% usage, 23.6 pts, 3.7 reb, 6.1 ast
Ace Bailey: 27.6 min, 21.5% usage, 13.8 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.8 ast
Brice Sensabaugh: 23.5 min, 24.9% usage, 14.9 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.9 ast
Jusuf Nurkic: 26.4 min, 19.3% usage, 10.9 pts, 10.4 reb, 4.8 ast
Top rookies: Darryn Peterson, pick 2 (Jazz).
Spurs vs Jazz FAQ
Is Victor Wembanyama playing tonight?
Victor Wembanyama was not on the injury report as of Tue 9:27 PM ET. Status can still change at shootaround, so the last report before tip is the one that counts.
Who is favored in Spurs vs Jazz?
The Spurs, at 84¢ on Polymarket to the Jazz’s 16¢. Kalshi’s two prices are listed beside it on NBA MARKET.
When and where is Spurs vs Jazz?
Wednesday, October 28, at 9:00 PM ET, in Utah.
More NBA previews break down the 11 other games; today’s board keeps every sport’s games in one list.
Kalshi is giving new traders $25 after a $25 trade (code SKILL, details).
Which app is legal where you are, and what it pays to join: apps compared.