Update 8:06 PM ET: Kyrie Irving is available (knee) and in the expected starting lineup. Naji Marshall is out (illness). Thunder 64¢ on Polymarket.
In this Thunder vs Mavericks prediction, the Thunder are 67¢ on Polymarket and Kalshi, down 14¢ from an 81¢ open. The Thunder are without Jalen Williams for this one, and his 28 minutes a night last season have to go somewhere. The Mavericks host the Thunder in Dallas on Wednesday, October 28, at 9:30 PM ET.
Form going in
Thunder: 4-0, 1.1 wins above what prices expected, 16th-toughest schedule (Expected, season to Oct 27)
Mavericks: 2-2, 1.0 win above what prices expected, against the toughest schedule in the league (Expected, season to Oct 27)
Price: Thunder 67¢, Mavericks 33¢ (Polymarket, as of Tue 9:30 PM ET)
Kalshi: Thunder 67¢, Mavericks 33¢
2027 title price: Thunder 19¢, Mavericks 1¢ (Polymarket US)
Live price and every move: NBA WIRE
Thunder vs Mavericks prediction: what the price says
The Thunder are favored at 67¢, with the Mavericks at 33¢. Kalshi is also at 67¢ and 33¢. NBA MARKET carries the Polymarket and Kalshi prices together. That is down 14¢ from the Thunder’s opening price of 81¢. Of the 52 games logged this season, favorites at tip took 36 (69%). How Thunder and Mavericks have done against their pre-game prices is tracked on Expected.
Injury report: Thunder vs Mavericks
As of Oct 26. These can change right up to tip.
Cooper Flagg (Mavericks): Available (was questionable), shoulder
Jalen Williams (Thunder): Out, ankle
Naji Marshall (Mavericks): Out, illness
Cason Wallace (Thunder): Out, shoulder
Otega Oweh (Thunder): Out, not with team
Thomas Sorber (Thunder): Out, knee
Nikola Topic (Thunder): Out, back
Chet Holmgren (Thunder): Out, knee
Alex Caruso (Thunder): Out, ankle
Ajay Mitchell (Thunder): Available (was questionable), ankle
Kyrie Irving (Mavericks): Available (was questionable), knee
Santi Aldama (Mavericks): Out, knee
Thunder vs Mavericks player stats
Each row is a player’s 2025-26 regular season under his current team, with usage meaning the share of possessions he finished on the floor. For how Mavericks’ minutes and shots are spread, check NBA USAGE.
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 33.2 min, 33.3% usage, 31.1 pts, 4.3 reb, 6.6 ast
Chet Holmgren: 28.9 min, 21.9% usage, 17.1 pts, 8.9 reb, 1.7 ast
Ajay Mitchell: 25.8 min, 21.8% usage, 13.6 pts, 3.3 reb, 3.6 ast
Cason Wallace: 26.6 min, 14.5% usage, 8.6 pts, 3.1 reb, 2.6 ast
Isaiah Hartenstein: 24.2 min, 16.1% usage, 9.2 pts, 9.4 reb, 3.5 ast
Out: Jalen Williams.
Mavericks
Cooper Flagg: 33.5 min, 26.9% usage, 21.0 pts, 6.7 reb, 4.5 ast
P.J. Washington: 31.0 min, 20.1% usage, 14.2 pts, 7.0 reb, 1.8 ast
Max Christie: 29.1 min, 16.4% usage, 12.3 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.0 ast
Santi Aldama: 27.9 min, 20.2% usage, 14.0 pts, 6.7 reb, 2.9 ast (new, was MEM)
Zaccharie Risacher: 22.4 min, 17.6% usage, 9.6 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.1 ast (new, was ATL)
Out: Naji Marshall.
Top rookies: Morez Johnson Jr., pick 9 (Mavericks).
How they come in
This week’s results for Oklahoma City and Dallas, each with the Polymarket price at tip.
The Thunder are 2-0 this week: a 108-101 home win over the Clippers on Sunday as 90¢ favorites and a 125-114 home win over the Suns on Monday as 75¢ favorites. One of the two went over the total. On the market they rate 77, 1st of 30, and they are 4-0 against 2.9 expected wins. Their next two opponents rate 45 on average, an easier run than most.
The Mavericks are 1-1 this week: a 122-106 home loss to the Spurs on Saturday as 13¢ underdogs and a 113-109 win at the Heat on Monday as 28¢ underdogs. Both went under the total. One of the wins came as underdogs. On the market they rate 34, 28th of 30, and they are 2-2 against 1.0 expected wins. Their next two opponents rate 66 on average, a tougher run than most.
Props in those games:
Ajay Mitchell (Thunder): over 9.5 points in both games; over 1.5 rebounds in both games
Chet Holmgren (Thunder): under 1.5 rebounds in both games; under 1.5 assists in both games
P.J. Washington (Mavericks): over 14.5 points in both games; over 7.5 rebounds in both games
Max Christie (Mavericks): over 4.5 points in both games; over 1.5 rebounds in both games
Questions about Thunder vs Mavericks
Is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing tonight?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was not on the injury report as of Tue 9:30 PM ET. Oklahoma City’s report before tip would show any change; with Jalen Williams out, his 33.3% usage is the largest share left in this rotation.
Who will win, the Thunder or the Mavericks?
The Thunder, at 67¢ on Polymarket to the Mavericks’s 33¢. Kalshi has the same split, and NBA MARKET shows any gap that opens before tip.
When and where is Thunder vs Mavericks?
Wednesday, October 28, at 9:30 PM ET, in Dallas.
Other Wednesday games: NBA predictions; today’s board tracks every sport playing today.
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