Update 6:13 AM ET: Ivica Zubac (Pacers) is out (ankle). Heat 67¢ → 74¢ on Polymarket since Thursday afternoon.
The Heat are 1-4 and 1.8 wins behind their prices, the furthest of any NBA team, yet Polymarket has moved them to 67¢ on Thursday afternoon and 74¢ on Friday morning for Friday's home game with the Pacers. Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton (left hamstring, at least two weeks) and T.J. McConnell. This Pacers vs Heat prediction covers Friday, October 30, at 8:00 PM ET in Miami.
Current form
Heat: 1-4 this season, 1.8 wins below what prices expected, the furthest behind the market in the NBA (Expected, season to Oct 29)
Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton will miss at least two weeks with a left hamstring strain (reported Oct 28); before that news, Siakam had 28% of listed points, Haliburton 21%, Nembhard 19% (NBA USAGE, Kalshi, Oct 28 8:30 AM)
Heat: Antetokounmpo 31% of listed points, Adebayo 16% (NBA USAGE, Oct 28 8:30 AM)
Price: Heat 74¢, Pacers 27¢ (Polymarket, as of Fri 6:01 AM ET; Heat 67¢ on Thursday)
Kalshi: Heat 74¢
Game total: 215.5 points (higher 51¢, lower 50¢)
2027 title price: Pacers 2¢, Heat 3¢ (Polymarket US)
Live price and every move: NBA WIRE
Pacers vs Heat prediction: what the price says
Polymarket has the Heat at 74¢ and the Pacers at 27¢ (Fri 6:01 AM ET). No gap between the apps: Kalshi is at 74¢ too. NBA MARKET keeps Polymarket and Kalshi side by side for this game. That is up 7¢ from 67¢ on Thursday afternoon. For context, favorites have won 69% of the games on our results page so far (47-21). The full price path for Pacers vs Heat is on NBA WIRE.
How they come in
How each team has played this week, with Polymarket’s price before tip.
The Pacers are 1-2 this week: a 136-109 win at the Nets on Sunday as 67¢ favorites, a 110-102 loss at the Bucks on Monday as 61¢ favorites and a 114-109 home loss to the 76ers on Wednesday as 29¢ underdogs. One of the three finished above the market total. On the market they rate 50, 15th of 30, and they are 2-3 against 2.9 expected wins. Their next two opponents rate 45 on average, an easier run than most.
The Heat are 1-1 this week: a 113-109 home loss to the Mavericks on Monday as 72¢ favorites and a 129-117 win at the Hawks on Wednesday as 45¢ underdogs. One of the two finished above the market total. On the market they rate 55, 13th of 30, and they are 1-4 against 2.8 expected wins.
How the starters did against their Polymarket numbers:
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat): lower than 30.5 points in both games; higher than 11.5 rebounds in both games
Bam Adebayo (Heat): lower than 3.5 assists in both games
Pacers vs Heat injury report
As of Fri Oct 30, 6:04 AM ET. Statuses can change up to tip.
Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers): Out, left hamstring (at least two weeks, reported Oct 28)
T.J. McConnell (Pacers): Out, hamstring
Ben Sheppard (Pacers): Out, knee
Johnny Furphy (Pacers): Out, knee
Ivica Zubac (Pacers): Out, ankle
Simone Fontecchio (Heat): Questionable, illness
Pacers vs Heat player stats
These are last season’s figures on this season’s rosters. Usage shows how much of the offense runs through a player while he plays. The usage shares behind both rotations are on NBA USAGE.
Pacers
Pascal Siakam: 33.2 min, 30.1% usage, 24.0 pts, 6.6 reb, 3.8 ast
Andrew Nembhard: 31.3 min, 23.6% usage, 16.9 pts, 2.8 reb, 7.7 ast
Kelly Oubre Jr.: 31.5 min, 18.1% usage, 14.1 pts, 5.0 reb, 1.6 ast (new, was PHI)
Aaron Nesmith: 29.7 min, 19.8% usage, 13.8 pts, 4.2 reb, 1.9 ast
Jarace Walker: 25.7 min, 20.7% usage, 11.6 pts, 5.1 reb, 2.5 ast
Out: Tyrese Haliburton, T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy, Ivica Zubac.
Heat
Giannis Antetokounmpo: 28.9 min, 37.0% usage, 27.6 pts, 9.8 reb, 5.4 ast (new, was MIL)
Bam Adebayo: 32.4 min, 25.0% usage, 20.1 pts, 10.0 reb, 3.2 ast
Andrew Wiggins: 30.3 min, 19.7% usage, 15.4 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.7 ast
Davion Mitchell: 28.6 min, 13.7% usage, 9.3 pts, 2.7 reb, 6.5 ast
Tim Hardaway Jr.: 26.6 min, 18.5% usage, 13.5 pts, 2.6 reb, 1.4 ast (new, was DEN)
Questions about Pacers vs Heat
Is Giannis Antetokounmpo playing tonight?
Giannis Antetokounmpo was not on the injury report as of Thu 3:53 PM ET. Status can still change at shootaround, so the last report before tip is the one that counts.
Who is favored in Pacers vs Heat?
The Heat, at 74¢ on Polymarket to the Pacers’ 27¢ (Fri 6:01 AM ET). Kalshi has the same 74¢.
When and where is Pacers vs Heat?
Friday, October 30, at 8:00 PM ET, in Miami.
For tonight’s other games, see NBA previews; today’s board covers every sport.
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