Both teams are beating their prices: the Rockets are 5-0 against 3.0 expected wins, the Mavericks 3-2 against 1.3. Polymarket has still moved 6¢ toward Dallas since the open, to Rockets 62¢. This Rockets vs Mavericks prediction covers Friday, October 30, at 8:00 PM ET in Dallas, with Naji Marshall out and Cooper Flagg questionable (shoulder).
Form going in
Rockets: 5-0 this season, 2.0 wins above what prices expected, tied for the most in the NBA (Expected, season to Oct 29)
Mavericks: Cooper Flagg 30% and Kyrie Irving 26% of listed points; Irving is questionable (knee) (NBA USAGE, Kalshi, Oct 28 8:30 AM)
Rockets: Kevin Durant 26% of listed Rockets points, nobody else above 16% (NBA USAGE, Kalshi, Oct 28 8:30 AM)
Price: Rockets 62¢, Mavericks 38¢ (Polymarket, as of Thu 3:55 PM ET)
Kalshi: Rockets 62¢, Mavericks 38¢
Game total: 221.5 points (higher 50¢, lower 50¢)
2027 title price: Rockets 9¢, Mavericks 1¢ (Polymarket US)
Live price and every move: NBA WIRE
Rockets vs Mavericks prediction: what the price says
The Rockets are favored at 62¢, with the Mavericks at 38¢. Polymarket and Kalshi agree on this one. NBA MARKET shows which app is cheaper for every game. The Rockets opened at 68¢, so the price has moved 6¢ away from them since. This season, the team favored at tip has won 47 of 68 games we have logged (69%). How Rockets and Mavericks have done against their pre-game prices is tracked on Expected.
Last time out
How both teams came out of their recent games, and what the market expected. For how the Mavericks’ minutes and shots are spread, check NBA USAGE.
The Rockets are 2-0 this week: a 120-110 home win over the Hawks on Monday as 64¢ favorites and a 132-100 win at the Bucks on Wednesday as 76¢ favorites. One of the two finished above the market total. On the market they rate 58, 9th of 30, and they are 5-0 against 3.0 expected wins. Their next two opponents rate 54 on average, a tougher run than most.
The Mavericks are 2-0 this week: a 113-109 win at the Heat on Monday as 28¢ underdogs and a 120-96 home win over the Thunder on Wednesday as 35¢ underdogs. Both finished below the market total. On the market they rate 38, 22nd of 30, and they are 3-2 against 1.3 expected wins.
The key player props from those games:
Kevin Durant (Rockets): lower than 26.5 points in both games; lower than 4.5 assists in both games
Amen Thompson (Rockets): lower than 8.5 rebounds in both games; lower than 5.5 assists in both games
Cooper Flagg (Mavericks): higher than 24.5 points in both games; higher than 6.5 assists in both games
P.J. Washington (Mavericks): higher than 14.5 points in both games; higher than 6.5 rebounds in both games
Injury report
As of Oct 26. Expect updates before tip.
Cooper Flagg (Mavericks): Questionable, shoulder
Naji Marshall (Mavericks): Out, illness
Marcus Smart (Rockets): Questionable, forearm
Steven Adams (Rockets): Out, calf
Rockets and Mavericks key players
Numbers from last season, following each player to his current team. Usage is how often a possession ends with him: a shot, free throws or a turnover.
Rockets
Kevin Durant: 36.4 min, 27.0% usage, 26.0 pts, 5.4 reb, 4.8 ast
Amen Thompson: 37.4 min, 20.0% usage, 18.3 pts, 7.8 reb, 5.3 ast
Alperen Sengun: 33.3 min, 26.6% usage, 20.4 pts, 8.9 reb, 6.2 ast
Jabari Smith Jr.: 35.1 min, 18.2% usage, 15.8 pts, 6.9 reb, 1.9 ast
Marcus Smart: 28.5 min, 15.4% usage, 9.3 pts, 2.8 reb, 3.0 ast (new, was LAL)
Out: Steven Adams.
Mavericks
Cooper Flagg: 33.5 min, 26.9% usage, 21.0 pts, 6.7 reb, 4.5 ast
P.J. Washington: 31.0 min, 20.1% usage, 14.2 pts, 7.0 reb, 1.8 ast
Max Christie: 29.1 min, 16.4% usage, 12.3 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.0 ast
Santi Aldama: 27.9 min, 20.2% usage, 14.0 pts, 6.7 reb, 2.9 ast (new, was MEM)
Zaccharie Risacher: 22.4 min, 17.6% usage, 9.6 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.1 ast (new, was ATL)
Out: Naji Marshall.
Top rookies: Morez Johnson Jr., pick 9 (Mavericks).
Rockets vs Mavericks FAQ
Is Kevin Durant playing tonight?
Kevin Durant was not on the injury report as of Thu 3:55 PM ET. Status can still change at shootaround, so the last report before tip is the one that counts.
Who will win, the Rockets or the Mavericks?
The Rockets are favored. Polymarket has them at 62¢, which reads as about a 62% chance, and the price moves live on NBA WIRE.
When and where is Rockets vs Mavericks?
Friday, October 30, at 8:00 PM ET, in Dallas.
More NBA predictions are up for tonight’s other games, and today’s board has every game across the four sports.
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