Warriors vs Timberwolves Prediction and Preview: NBA, Oct 28
Update 7:35 PM ET: Gui Santos is out (knee).
In this Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction, the Warriors are 40¢ on Polymarket, up from 24¢ on Monday, after Tuesday’s news on Anthony Edwards’ knee. No Edwards means Minnesota has to replace the 32% usage he carried last season. Warriors at Timberwolves, Wednesday, October 28: tip is 8:00 PM ET in Minnesota.
Current form
Warriors: 1-3, 0.6 wins below what prices expected, 7th-toughest schedule (Expected, season to Oct 27)
Timberwolves: 3-1, 1.0 win above what prices expected, 6th-toughest schedule (Expected, season to Oct 27)
Price: Timberwolves 60¢, Warriors 40¢ (Polymarket, as of Tue 9:19 PM ET)
Kalshi: Timberwolves 59¢, Warriors 41¢
Game total: 250.5 points (over 50¢, under 50¢)
2027 title price: Warriors 2¢, Timberwolves 7¢ (Polymarket US)
Live price and every move: NBA WIRE
Who is favored in Warriors vs Timberwolves
The market makes the Timberwolves the favorite at 60¢; the Warriors are 40¢. Kalshi has the Timberwolves 1¢ cheaper at 59¢. NBA MARKET tracks both apps on one row for this matchup. The Timberwolves opened at 72¢, so the price has moved 12¢ away from them since. This season, the side favored at tip is 36-16 across logged games (69%). For Warriors’ results against the market so far, see Expected.
Rotation notes
Anthony Edwards will have an arthroscopic procedure on his right knee and miss up to two months (reported Oct 27).
Recent form: Warriors vs Timberwolves
How both teams came out of their recent games, and what the market expected. The usage shares behind both rotations are on NBA USAGE.
The Warriors are 1-2 this week: a 111-108 home loss to the Grizzlies on Friday as 60¢ favorites, a 131-122 loss at the Suns on Saturday as 23¢ underdogs and a 134-114 win at the Nuggets on Monday as 30¢ underdogs. Two of the three went over the total. One of the wins came as underdogs. On the market they rate 41, 19th of 30, and they are 1-3 against 1.6 expected wins. Their next two opponents rate 58 on average, a tougher run than most.
The Timberwolves are 1-1 this week: a 117-94 home win over the Raptors on Sunday as 49¢ underdogs and a 127-125 loss at the Cavaliers on Monday as 43¢ underdogs. One of the two went over the total. One of the wins came as underdogs. On the market they rate 57, 12th of 30, and they are 3-1 against 2.0 expected wins. Their next three opponents rate 50 on average, about an average run.
The key player props from those games:
Stephen Curry (Warriors): under 24.5 points in both games; under 3.5 rebounds in both games
Brandin Podziemski (Warriors): over 14.5 points in both games; over 5.5 rebounds in both games
Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves): over 2.5 assists in both games; over 9.5 points in both games
Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves): over 9.5 points in both games; over 1.5 rebounds in both games
Injury report: Warriors vs Timberwolves
As of Oct 26. Statuses can change up to tip.
Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors): Out
Jimmy Butler (Warriors): Out, knee
Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves): Out, achilles
Moses Moody (Warriors): Out, knee
Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves): Out, knee
Gui Santos (Warriors): Out, knee
Warriors vs Timberwolves player stats
Last season’s numbers, mapped to current rosters. Usage is the share of team possessions a player ends while on the floor, with a shot, free throws or a turnover.
Warriors
Stephen Curry: 30.9 min, 32.5% usage, 26.6 pts, 3.6 reb, 4.7 ast
Jimmy Butler: 31.1 min, 23.3% usage, 20.0 pts, 5.6 reb, 4.9 ast
Kristaps Porzingis: 23.7 min, 28.3% usage, 16.1 pts, 5.3 reb, 2.3 ast
Brandin Podziemski: 28.4 min, 20.1% usage, 13.8 pts, 5.1 reb, 3.7 ast
Draymond Green: 27.5 min, 16.1% usage, 8.4 pts, 5.5 reb, 5.5 ast
Timberwolves
LaMelo Ball: 28.0 min, 32.0% usage, 20.1 pts, 4.8 reb, 7.1 ast (new, was CHA)
Jaden McDaniels: 31.7 min, 18.5% usage, 14.8 pts, 4.2 reb, 2.7 ast
Rudy Gobert: 31.3 min, 12.9% usage, 10.9 pts, 11.5 reb, 1.7 ast
Donte DiVincenzo: 30.4 min, 16.9% usage, 12.2 pts, 4.1 reb, 3.8 ast
Ayo Dosunmu: 28.9 min, 19.0% usage, 14.4 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.5 ast
Out: Anthony Edwards.
Top rookies: Yaxel Lendeborg, pick 11 (Warriors).
Warriors vs Timberwolves FAQ
Is Stephen Curry playing tonight?
Stephen Curry was not on the injury report as of Tue 9:19 PM ET. Golden State’s game-day injury report is where any change to that would show up.
Who is favored in Warriors vs Timberwolves?
The Timberwolves. Polymarket has them at 60¢, which reads as about a 60% chance, and the full chart through tip is on NBA WIRE.
When and where is Warriors vs Timberwolves?
Wednesday, October 28, at 8:00 PM ET, in Minnesota.
More NBA previews cover Wednesday’s other 11 tips, and today’s board adds the NFL, EPL and CS2 games.
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