Both teams lost their PGL Masters Bucharest semifinals on Friday, Vitality to Nemiga and MOUZ to FURIA, and the market can barely split them for Saturday's Vitality vs Mousesports series: best of three, 4:00 AM ET, with the title already out of reach for both.
Vitality and MOUZ this season
Vitality: 10-2 over the last 30 days, 0.8 wins above what prices expected, against only the 39th-toughest schedule of 51 teams (Expected, 30 days to Oct 30)
Vitality: No. 1 in CS2 market power rankings at a 73 rating, 13-2 at top events over 90 days (CS2 power rankings, results through Oct 27)
MOUZ: 9-3 over the last 30 days, 2.0 wins above what prices expected, against the 5th-toughest schedule of 51 teams (Expected, 30 days to Oct 30)
MOUZ: 3rd in CS2 market power rankings at a 63 rating, up 4 in 14 days, 9-4 at top events over 90 days; MOUZ were 59¢ on Kalshi before losing Friday's semifinal to FURIA
Price: Vitality 56¢, MOUZ 44¢ on Polymarket (as of Fri 5:49 PM ET)
Kalshi: Vitality 56¢, MOUZ 44¢
Top rated: ZywOo (Vitality), Spinx (Mousesports)
Vitality vs MOUZ prediction: reading the price
56¢ makes Vitality a slight favorite, about a 56% chance, close to a coin flip. Polymarket and Kalshi agree at 56¢, so there is no gap between the apps. A price this close tends to swing hard on the first map. Every tick of that move is charted on CS2 WIRE.
CS2 MARKET keeps both apps side by side. At these prices, $10 on Vitality returns approximately $17.86 if they win, and $10 on MOUZ returns $22.73.
Map by map
Map 1: Vitality 52¢, MOUZ 48¢
Three maps (over 2.5): 52¢
Over 2.5 maps is 52¢ at time of writing, so the market sees a full three-map series as slightly more likely than a sweep.
Vitality vs MOUZ rosters
Vitality are flameZ, ropz and mezii on rifles and ZywOo on the AWP. jL is in filling in for apEX, who is out for personal reasons. mezii is the in-game leader at this event.
MOUZ field Spinx, xelex and PR on rifles, torzsi holding the AWP and xertioN calling. LINEUPS tracks every top roster and each player's role.
Names to know
ZywOo (Vitality): the most complete player in CS; immense upside whenever he’s playing.
xertioN (MOUZ): the in-game leader, calling the rounds for a lineup that has beaten its prices by 2.0 wins over 30 days.
ZywOo vs torzsi: two AWPers who set the pace of the rounds.
Vitality vs MOUZ FAQ
Who will win, Vitality or MOUZ?
The market leans Vitality: 56¢ on Polymarket and Kalshi against 44¢ for MOUZ (Fri 5:49 PM ET).
When does Vitality vs MOUZ start?
Saturday, October 31, at 4:00 AM ET, best of three.
Prices move, and this is not advice.
Polymarket lists the most CS2 series: $25 on a $10 deposit, code SKILL. Claim it here.
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