NAVI vs Aurora Prediction and Picks: StarSeries Fall, Thursday 11:00 AM ET

Prices were taken Wednesday morning ET and move right up to lock. The WIRE logs every move on both exchanges as it happens.

The game

NAVI play Aurora at 11:00 AM ET, best of three. The market has NAVI at 52 cents, a coin flip once the cost of trading comes out. We make it 50.3 percent. That is the smallest gap on Thursday, so there is no strong lean on the side.

How the series is likely to go

All four outcomes sit within half a point of 25 percent: NAVI 2-0, NAVI 2-1, Aurora 2-1, Aurora 2-0. The series reaches a third map exactly half the time, the highest on the slate, and the underdog takes at least one map 75 percent of the time. Nothing here is more likely than anything else.

Players

XANTARES at 92 is the highest-rated player in this game and tops the board about a quarter of the time. Wicadia (89) is close behind at 16 percent. woxic (85, AWP) and Jimpphat (85) sit at 8 each, with kyxsan (75, IGL) behind them.

NAVI's scoring is flatter. b1t (89), w0nderful (88, AWP) and makazze (86) are within three rating points of each other and split 16, 13 and 10 percent. iM (81) and Aleksib (69, IGL) complete the five.

The read

No strong plays here. The value is in the shape: a coin-flip series goes longer more often than any other on the board.

Where the numbers come from

The player ratings are on CARNAGE, the series shapes on RANGE, our number against the live price on MARKET, and the current five for every team on LINEUPS.

Where to trade it

The series and the tournament winner are on both Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket has the deeper liquidity on StarSeries; new users get $50 on a $10 deposit with code SKILL.

Win probabilities are approximate and subject to change. Good luck!