FURIA vs MIBR Prediction and Picks: StarSeries Fall, Thursday 1:30 PM ET

Prices were taken Wednesday morning ET and move right up to lock. The WIRE logs every move on both exchanges as it happens.

The game

FURIA play MIBR at 1:30 PM ET, best of three. The market has FURIA at 68 cents, about 67 after the cost of trading. We make them 69.6 percent. A two-point lead over the price, and the only game on Thursday where our number is the higher of the two.

How the series is likely to go

FURIA sweep 40 percent of the time and win 2-1 another 29. MIBR take at least one map in 60 percent of series and the match reaches a third map in 46. MIBR's route is a long series rather than a quick one: their 2-1 at 17 percent is more likely than their sweep at 13.

Players

KSCERATO at 93 tops the board 27 percent of the time, with molodoy (92, AWP) right behind at 23. No other team on the slate has two players each above 20 percent. YEKINDAR (88) is at 13, with yuurih (80) and FalleN (79, IGL) behind.

insani at 91 is MIBR's scorer and tops the board 20 percent of the time, the highest share of any underdog player on Thursday. nqz holds the AWP at 84 and sits at 6. venomzera (81), tomaszin (76) and LNZ (69, IGL) complete the side.

The read

FURIA is the favorite, but MIBR have been looking stronger and stronger under LNZ’s in-game leadership. Would not be surprised to see them push FalleN’s crew to the limit here.

Where the numbers come from

The player ratings are on CARNAGE, the series shapes on RANGE, our number against the live price on MARKET, and the current five for every team on LINEUPS.

Where to trade it

The series and the tournament winner are on both Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket has the deeper liquidity on StarSeries; new users get $50 on a $10 deposit with code SKILL.

Win probabilities are approximate and subject to change. Good luck!