Liquid vs NRG Prediction and Pick: PGL NA Qualifier Upper Bracket Final (Sep 11)
Event: PGL Masters Bucharest, North American qualifier, upper bracket final
Start: Fri Sep 11, 10:00 PM ET
Format: best-of-three
The numbers
GOS fair value: Liquid 56.0% to win
Polymarket: Liquid 60¢
Edge: NRG +4.0 points
Our read on Liquid vs NRG
We make Liquid 56.0% to win the series. Polymarket has them at 60¢. That leaves a small gap on NRG, 4 points. Worth a look, not a strong play on its own.
If Liquid wins, a 2-0 (29.2%) is a little more likely than going to a third map (26.8%). A third map happens 49.7% of the time by our numbers.
Top frag pick: Grim (NRG, rifler) is the most likely player to lead the series in kills at 25.8%, with EliGE next at 21.1%.
Series score chances
Liquid 2-0: 29.2%
Liquid 2-1: 26.8%
NRG 2-1: 22.9%
NRG 2-0: 21.1%
Lineups and CARNAGE ratings
Liquid: EliGE (rifler, 90), malbsMd (rifler, 89), Jorko (AWP, 85), NAF (rifler, 81), JT (IGL, 76)
NRG: Grim (rifler, 91), Sonic (rifler, 86), hallzerk (AWP, 81), Jeorge (rifler, 77), nitr0 (IGL, 72)
Players to watch
Grim (NRG, rifler): 25.8% to lead the series in kills, CARNAGE 91
EliGE (Liquid, rifler): 21.1% to lead the series in kills, CARNAGE 90
malbsMd (Liquid, rifler): 18.0% to lead the series in kills, CARNAGE 89
Map lines
Liquid -1.5: GOS 29.2% vs 38¢ (edge -8.8)
NRG +1.5: GOS 70.8% vs 68¢ (edge +2.8)
Over 2.5 maps: GOS 49.7% vs 48¢ (edge +1.7)
Under 2.5 maps: GOS 50.3% vs 56¢ (edge -5.7)
Quick answers
What time does Liquid vs NRG start?
Fri Sep 11, 10:00 PM ET, best-of-three.
Who is favored in Liquid vs NRG?
Liquid. Our fair value has them at 56.0%, and Polymarket prices them at 60¢.
Who is most likely to top frag?
Grim (NRG) at 25.8% to lead the series in kills.
Trade it: Liquid vs NRG on Polymarket. New users get $50 on a $10 deposit with code SKILL.
More on this slate: live prices on MARKET · series ranges on RANGE · player ratings on CARNAGE · all of today's picks
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