CS2 Prediction Markets
Live prices, fair value and every move on Counter-Strike 2 markets across Kalshi and Polymarket. What is on the board, how to read it, and where to trade it.
What is on the board
At any major CS2 event there are four kinds of contract to trade. Game winner markets open for every series and close at start time. Stage advancement covers whether a team gets out of a group. Tournament winner runs from before the event to the final. Placement covers finishes like a top four. Between events, the exchanges also run roster markets on whether a team changes its five by a date.
The current board, every price on it, and every move since it opened is on the WIRE. This week that is StarLadder StarSeries Fall in Barcelona: four series on Thursday and the tournament winner market, with both exchanges quoted side by side.
WIRE records each price change on both exchanges the moment it happens, the gap between our fair value and the price on every game, and the split between Kalshi and Polymarket when they disagree. It is the page to have open while a slate is running.
Reading a price
A contract trades between 1 and 99 cents and pays a dollar if the outcome happens. The price is the market's probability, roughly. A team at 72 cents is being priced at a little under 72 percent, because both sides of a market add to slightly more than 100 and that gap is the exchange's spread. There is a fee on top. An edge has to clear both.
You can sell before a contract settles, so a position can be closed into a lead or out of a mistake before the series ends. The full explanation, including how an exchange differs from a sportsbook and where the margin actually hides, is in how CS2 prediction markets work.
Where to trade
CFTC-regulated US exchange in US dollars. Game, stage and tournament markets at major CS2 events. New users get $25 on a $25 trade with code SKILL. Available in most states; a handful are restricted while legal challenges run.
Polymarket US is a CFTC-regulated exchange, live since late 2025, settling in USDC. The deepest liquidity on major CS2 events. New users get $50 on a $10 deposit with code SKILL. The international site is separate and not open to US residents.
The two exchanges price the same game independently and the split between them is often a few cents. WIRE logs those splits as they appear, so comparing both before a position takes no work.
What we publish
The live log. Every price move, every split, every gap between fair value and the price, as it happens.
Our fair value next to the live price on every game on the slate, with the edge shown after the spread is stripped out.
Picks, fades and notes before each event, in an editorial column.
A preview of every series on the slate: how the game is likely to go, the players, and where our number sits against the price.
The player ratings underneath the fair value, for every player on every game.
Eight guides, free to read, from what Counter-Strike is to how the markets work.
Questions
Exchanges where you buy and sell contracts on Counter-Strike 2 outcomes: which team wins a game, advances from a stage, or wins the tournament. A contract's price in cents is roughly the market's probability. Kalshi and Polymarket both run CS2 markets on major events.
Kalshi and Polymarket US are both CFTC-regulated exchanges with CS2 markets. Availability differs by state and changes, so check each platform's own eligibility list before you fund an account.
WIRE logs every price move on both exchanges as it happens. MARKET puts our fair value next to the live price on every game. The Kalshi CS2 hub carries picks before each event, and the strategy guides explain how the markets work.
Everything on this page points at the same place. Open the log, read the prices, and the rest follows.