Vitality vs FURIA Prediction and Picks: StarSeries, Friday 1:30 PM ET

The game

Vitality play FURIA in the second upper bracket semifinal at 1:30 PM ET, best of three. Vitality beat magic yesterday, FURIA beat MIBR.

The market has Vitality at 71 cents, about 70 with the margin out. We make them 72.8 percent, so the two agree inside three points. Vitality are also the tournament favorite at 49 percent on Kalshi, more than double the next team.

How the series is likely to go

Vitality 2-0 is 43 percent, their 2-1 is 30. FURIA win the series about one time in four, and 15 of those points come at 2-1.

A third map is 45 percent. FURIA's route is the long one, and their price is fair for it.

Players

ZywOo is rated 99, the highest number on the board, and tops the kill column in this series 42 percent of the time. flameZ and ropz are both at 91 and both around 14 percent, so Vitality have three players who can lead it.

FURIA lead with KSCERATO at 90 and 12 percent, then molodoy (87, AWP) at 7 and YEKINDAR (84) at 4. FalleN at 74 is calling, and his kill share reads accordingly.

The read

FURIA did well to bounce back after losing the opening map to MIBR yesterday. That said, I’m giving the edge to a full-strength Vitality lineup here. They’ve been playing with stand-ins at recent events but now have their normal five at StarLadder.

Where the numbers come from

The player ratings are on CARNAGE, the series shapes on RANGE, our number against the live price on MARKET, and every roster on LINEUPS. Prices move all day on the WIRE.

Where to trade it

The series and the tournament winner are on both Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket has the deeper book on StarSeries; new users get $50 on a $10 deposit. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated option in the US: trade $25, get $25. Code SKILL on both.

Win probabilities are approximate and subject to change. Good luck!