Aurora vs NRG Prediction and Picks: StarSeries, Friday 11:00 AM ET

The game

Aurora and NRG meet in the first upper bracket semifinal at 11:00 AM ET, best of three, with a place in the upper bracket final on the line. Aurora looked great in a 2-0 win over Na’Vi yesterday; NRG beat MOUZ 2-1.

The market has Aurora at 75 cents, about 74 once the margin comes out. We make them 71.4 percent, so we are three points the other way. It is a lean on NRG, not a play.

How the series is likely to go

Aurora 2-0 is 42 percent and their 2-1 is 30. NRG win about one series in four, and 16 of those 29 points come at 2-1.

A third map is 46 percent. For a game the market prices as three-to-one, that is a lot of series that get uncomfortable.

Players

XANTARES leads Aurora at 94 and tops the board 27 percent of the time. Wicadia (91) is at 18 and Jimpphat (89) at 13, so Aurora carry three players who can win the kill column.

Grim at 91 is the story on the other side: 18 percent to top frag, ahead of every Aurora player except XANTARES. Sonic (86) and hallzerk (82, AWP) both moved up after the MOUZ win. nitr0 at 70 is where the IGL discount shows.

The read

NRG at 26 cents is the side we like a little more, but both teams are volatile right now. Aurora have the edge in firepower but are still adjusting to life with this new-looking starting five.

Where the numbers come from

The player ratings are on CARNAGE, the series shapes on RANGE, our number against the live price on MARKET, and every roster on LINEUPS. Prices move all day on the WIRE.

Where to trade it

The series and the tournament winner are on both Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket has the deeper book on StarSeries; new users get $50 on a $10 deposit. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated option in the US: trade $25, get $25. Code SKILL on both.

Win probabilities are approximate and subject to change. Good luck!