IEM Rio Day 2 2026: Tuesday Projections & Picks

Here is who we should pay attention to on Underdog, Sleeper, Chalkboard, PrizePicks, Betr and DraftKings Pick6.

CS2 Slate Preview

The blowout risk is real in two of these games. When a team is an 87% or 70% favorite, they can close out maps 13-3 and your top projected player walks away with 15 kills on a map that lasted 18 rounds.

Let’s dig in!

Game by Game

Gentle Mates vs RED Canids - 67.0% Gentle Mates

MartinezSa leads Gentle Mates and is the most consistent kill producer on the roster. sausol has shown up in recent events. alex is their IGL and will sacrifice his own stat line to enable the fraggers around him.

RED Canids are a South American qualifier, with dav1deuS having the highest 3-month K/R on their roster. Gentle Mates are a solid favorite but not a dominant one, so this is a game that could go three.

Vitality vs G2 - 86.8% Vitality

The most lopsided game of the day. ZywOo is obviously a top projected player on the slate. The issue with Vitality in blowout wins is that all three are legitimate fraggers competing for a finite kill pool. In a 13-2 win, kills get distributed.

G2 lost huNter- and are using a stand-in at IGL. MATYS and NertZ are the players to watch if G2 manage to make maps competitive. At 13% to win the series, that is a low probability but not zero.

3DMAX vs Liquid - 53.8% 3DMAX

The closest line of the day besides Spirit vs Falcons. 3DMAX are a very slight favorite at 53.8, and this is the game most likely to go three maps.

misutaaa leads 3DMAX and has the highest 3-month K/R on their roster. Ex3rcice and Lucky are reliable contributors. When this roster is playing well they spread kills across multiple players rather than relying on a lone star.

EliGE and malbMd are the most interesting options on Liquid’s side. They have the most skill and upside in this matchup.

Spirit vs Falcons - 50.0% Spirit

The game of the day. The market has this at dead even. Spirit remains without their coach but still dismantled Liquid in two yesterday.

donk leads the entire slate. He is a lone star in the truest sense and the gap between him and the rest of Spirit is significant. His ceiling on a good series is higher than any other player in this game. Spirit's remaining roster is serviceable but donk is doing the heavy lifting.

Falcons come in with m0NESY as their AWPer and arguably the most balanced top-three of any team on this slate. m0NESY, kyousuke, and NiKo all project at similar levels. There was a report that karrigan is joining Falcons before the Major, and the situation around the IGL slot and kyxsan's future adds some background noise.

B8 vs Passion UA - 70.1% B8

B8 are a comfortable favorite. npl is their IGL and top-ranked player by score, which is unusual. esenthial and kensizor are two of the primary fraggers.

Passion UA are missing Senzu, their best player, and have to play with a stand-in. A Passion UA roster at full strength would be a real opponent here. Without Senzu this is a different conversation.

The stand-in situation depresses Passion UA's kill ceiling. B8 should handle this.

Natus Vincere vs FURIA - 58.2% NaVi

Na’Vi are a decently-sized favorite at 58.2%. makazze leads the NaVi roster in score and 3-month K/R. b1t and w0nderful are close behind and project similarly.

FURIA at a home event in Rio is the story here. KSCERATO and molodoy are legitimate contributors and YEKINDAR adds upside. At 41.8% to win, FURIA represent one of the more interesting underdog plays of the day.

Legacy vs HOTU — 65.5% Legacy

dumau and latto pace Legacy and both have the highest kill rates on the team. It’s notable that Legacy is without their coach at this event.

This should still be a straightforward win but HOTU are not a pushover and have highly-skilled players. If they find their footing on a good map they can make this competitive. At 34.5%, do not hate an upset call here.

MOUZ vs Aurora — 60.7% MOUZ

MOUZ are a moderate favorite. Spinx leads the way and is the highest-rated player in this game by a meaningful margin. xertioN and torzsi are reliable too.

Aurora's case runs through XANTARES and Wicadia, who are both legitimate fraggers and the best kill-share duo they have. At 39.3% Aurora have a real path here, especially if XANTARES gets going early. He has the highest individual ceiling in this game along with Spinx.

Looking for more CS2 DFS picks? Check out our plays hub, where we’ll add in our favorite player picks.